Jair Bolsonaro, bet on his re-election with FTX

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Exchange specializing in cryptographic derivatives, FTX has just launched a specific futures contract unrelated to this sector. The latest product offered by the platform makes it possible to bet on the result of the next presidential election in Brazil. The stake will therefore be to guess whether the current leader of the country, Jair Bolsonaro, will be renewed or not for a second term in 2022.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro

All about the futures contract Bolsonaro 2022

On October 2, 2022, Brazilians will be called upon to go to the polls to choose their future president. If none of the candidates receives more than 50% of the votes cast, a second round will take place on October 30, 2022 in order to designate the winner of the elections. FTX’s new Bolsonaro 2022 futures contract will expire at $ 1 if the latter wins and $ 0 if he loses the election. In the absence of a declaration of results before the end of 2022 or of cancellation of the elections, FTX has predicted that the futures contract will expire at $ 0. Once these details are delivered, it is important to talk about the latest trends regarding the retention in power of the current Brazilian president.

The least we can say is that Mr. Bolsonaro has been in free fall since the year 2020. They are indeed many to blame him its disastrous management of the health crisis raging in the country with 435,000 deaths due to Covid-19. Added to this is a rising unemployment rate of 14% and the numerous corruption scandals that have marked his current mandate. The latest polls from the country show that 45% of Brazilians disapprove of his administration against 24% who support it. While he has a little over a year left to reverse this trend, support is growing around the candidacy of the former president Lula da silva to take its place.

After Bolsonaro in 2022, FTX offers a futures contract Trump 2024

FTX This is not his first attempt at futures contracts on the outcome of a presidential election. Last year, the exchange already offered the possibility to its users to bet on the American elections which had opposed Donald Trump to Joe Biden. Building on this success, it has already launched an option allowing them to speculate on the country’s next presidential election to be held in 2024. Currently trading at a price of $ 0.085, the Trump 2024 futures contract is currently only generating a daily volume of $ 20. FTX states on its website that the latter will be set at $ 1 if Trump is elected president on February 1, 2024, and $ 0 otherwise.

The price of the Bolsonaro contract is currently recorded at $ 0.488 with a daily volume hovering around $ 3000. While in theory it should equal Bolsonaro’s probability of re-election, he is subject to the influence of supply and demand as well as the costs of capital.

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The comments and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone, and should not be considered as investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.


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