The DAX volatility fell sharply, the market digested the new record high and the wait for the US labor market report began. Which signals can you read in advance from the chart?
Record high in the DAX has to be digested
The new record high of 15,685 points initially caused a “vortex” in the market, but this did not lead to a new trend phase. Rather, the market participants surrendered to the interplay between positive economic data and rising inflation data.
Exactly at the closing price on Tuesday, the market opened in the middle of the week and waited there for impulses. A short peak at 15,631 was all that was felt from the momentum of Tuesday in the aftermath of the cops. After that, the market literally went into a very, very calm phase, which was maintained until the end of trading.
Conclusion of the DAX midweek
From a trader’s perspective, there was little chance of finding attractive trades. Especially not in the medium-term. There was also no new momentum from the USA in the afternoon. Not even in the post exchange.
The Dow Jones closed almost unchanged and the Nasdaq and S & P500 only moved 0.1 percentage points on balance.
The vola came back to 80 points and thus indicates a further wait before the ADP labor market report. These daily parameters were recorded:
|Previous day course||15,567.36|
Nevertheless, it was the third record at the close of trading in the last four trading days that gently but steadily pushed the market up. Hardly noticeable for day traders, but overall clearly visible in the medium-term chart image.
Will this trend continue?
DAX ideas before the labor market data
The medium-term anchor point shown yesterday remains. I will update the chart image tonight (review):
Medium-term anchor point in the DAX
Until then, the correction had not yet taken place.Rather, we were quoted on and around the old DAX record at 15,568 points, which is close to a decision zone before the anchor point:
Medium-term decision-making zone in the DAX
Based on yesterday’s volatility, I set the trigger points for further movements a little further away and aim at the all-time high after exceeding 15,631, as well as the GAP area below 15,550, which we can still see clearly in the chart on Monday:
Trading signal in the DAX
The preliminary exchange first shows slight strength:
DAX pre-market on Thursday
This tendency can thus be maintained even with low volatility and symbolized by a trend line as a first orientation for the trading day. Together with the closing price last night, she offers a little cross support:
Trend in the DAX in the morning
You will receive these charts as a morning DAX outlook by email for your trade preparation. For the interactive market discussion, I start at 7.30 a.m. on YouTube and then I’m with other traders in the daily stream on Twitch to see and ready for any questions:
Economic data on June 3rd, 2021
After the Markit PMI overall index from Germany at 9.55 a.m. and the EU at 10.00 a.m., we are eagerly awaiting the ADP report on the US labor market at 2.15 p.m. This won’t be released until today because of the US holiday, just 15 minutes before initial US jobless claims. This involves unit labor costs and other estimates of the US labor market, which is considered to be the engine of the economic recovery.
At 3:45 p.m., the Markit PMI overall index for the USA is important, as is the ISM index for production and non-manufacturing at 4:00 p.m.
All dates mentioned are listed here in a table with the forecasts of the analysts:
Economic data on June 3rd, 2021
I wish us all the best for the start of trading on the German stock market tomorrow.
Also available as a YouTube video:
Your Andreas Bernstein
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