EUR / USD: Trend channel wobbles – UBS column

Review: The EUR / USD currency pair has been moving in an upward trend for months and in a rising trend channel. This channel has been confirmed several times on the top and bottom. The previous day, however, EUR / USD broke down and is currently slightly below the lower limit of the trend channel. The euro is currently trading at $ 1,214. The next support is now the 50’s EMA at USD 1,209. If the EUR / USD sags here too, the situation for the currency pair would slowly deteriorate again in the medium term. In addition, EUR / USD has been trading below the 10 EMA for several trading days, which also indicates weakness.

Outlook: The upward trend in EUR / USD is still intact, but is currently shaky.

The long scenarios: The currency pair can defend the 50’s EMA at USD 1,209 and stabilize above the 50’s EMA. In this case, a new run up to the 10 EMA is to be expected. But only when the 10-EMA can be broken up again sustainably, the situation would brighten again significantly and the currency pair show renewed short-term strength. Then a renewed run-up to the course high at USD 1,234 would be expected. If it goes even higher, the next target would be at the upper limit of the rising trend channel.

The short scenarios: The currency pair can no longer regain the rising trend channel and is also slipping below the 50 EMA. In this case, the downward momentum should pick up again. Should the 10-EMA then also fall below the 50-EMA in the daily chart, another bearish signal would result. The next target on the downside would be the USD 1,200 mark below the 50 EMA.


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