If the primary job of a stock exchange service is to alert readers to risks and to address possible profit hedging, then market sentiment is euphoric. It is precisely this phase that can currently be seen. It felt like a thousand times the Dax tried to leave the 13,500 point threshold behind it last year – but a thousand times nothing happened. New year, new luck, the investors said to each other and let the Dax start with strong profits on records above 14,000 points. The lid has been lifted and with new records there can be no more technical barriers. The index is already up almost three percent, almost as much as in the entire year 2020. However, the party mood prevails above the surface, with the speculative values from the second and third rows.
Tui shares are at the top of the list not only with smart brokers, particularly popular with younger audiences, but also with classic stock exchanges such as Gettex. On some days around 17,000 orders were executed on popular trading platforms by the afternoon, with a trading volume of over EUR 75 million. There were 30 million shares on Xetra, normally only around five million share certificates change hands every day. Tui has brought help from the state in the last few days, the valuation of the expected value of the share was actually 3.60 euros, but the day after it was traded at around 5 euros. De facto 50 percent price increase. Greed ate the brain.
Hydrogen titles are in demand
At the top of the ranking of the most popular stocks, the papers of the Norwegian hydrogen company Nel Asa and the US fuel cell company Plug Power have also been to be found for some time. Alternative energies are among the mega-topics of the future and are strongly promoted by the ambitious climate goals of the governments. With the victory of the Democrats in the USA, the new US President Joe Biden can vigorously push ahead with his announced massive investments in renewable energies. This creates a lot of imagination, especially speculative investors gamble. Risks are ignored; similar to the Neuer Markt, valuations do not seem to play a role. Nel Asa’s exchange rate in euros has more than doubled since the US elections, and at Plug Power it is even 230 percent.
Corona vaccine manufacturer with second air?
Biontech is one of Smartbroker’s favorites among vaccine manufacturers. But even as a trader, you should always answer the question of what is already priced in the prices. Stocks like Biontech provide a good example of this. The price peaked at $ 130 in early December when news came that vaccinations would soon begin. Since then, the value has dropped by almost 40 percent. A lot of imagination has been priced out, now the share has been adjusted and can start a new upward wave.
This is to be distinguished from stocks that are massively shortened by large investors in order to earn money from falling prices. If, however, the downward journey does not take place and the prices rise, the short sellers come under pressure and have to cover their positions, i.e. buy shares on the market. In this way, a self-reinforcing spiral can set in and force other shortsellers to smooth out. Tesla papers have been a good example for months.
Tesla – Tomb of the Short Sellers
Even the profit-taking that many expected after being included in the S&P 500 in mid-December have not materialized. On the contrary: Since then, it has increased by 30 percent, and turnover on Xetra is roughly twice as high as the average for the past 90 days. Around six percent of the shares related to the free float (freely tradable shares) are shortened, the quota has recently fallen only marginally. It is also just under five percent for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
In Germany, the short sellers have primarily targeted Encavis. The cumulative percentage of short sales is a whopping 13 percent, with Citadel in particular holding large positions. At Evotec, the rate is around eleven percent, closely followed by Varta with just under ten percent. Deutsche Wohnen tops the list in front of VW among the DAX values.
Daniel Saurenz runs the stock exchange portal Feingold Research with his team. It offers a daily market letter that you can test free of charge for 14 days. Sign in at Info@feingold-research.com or try the stock exchange service under this link out. Training days and coachings can be found NEW under feingold-academy.com