In the morning: VW, Just Eat Takeaway and Ford in focus – Nord LB column

In December, car sales in China climbed 6.4% compared to the same period in the previous year to 2.83 million vehicles. This is now the ninth increase in a row. Due to the restrictions in the corona pandemic, there was a slight decrease of 1.9% to 25.3 million units for the year as a whole. For the current year, the Chinese Automobile Manufacturers Association expects sales figures to increase by around 4% to 26.3 million vehicles.

Industry in the euro zone recovered more strongly in November than forecast. The companies produced 2.5% more than in the previous month, reported Eurostat. Compared to the previous year, however, there is still a minus of 0.6%.

US consumer prices rose by 0.4% m / m in December, so that the inflation rate rose to 1.4% y / y. While the price data did not play a role in 2020, it is likely to receive a little more attention in the course of 2021: We expect the US inflation rate to rise towards 3% in the summer. These medium-term prospects explain part of the soaring government bond yields observed in recent days – especially in the US. In addition, the economic implications of the Senate elections and the vaccination campaign that had started had a positive effect on returns. Even if a further (base-related) rise in inflation rates can be assumed for 2021, we see this as a primarily temporary phenomenon and a problem that will remain almost negligible for central bankers for a long time to come. Nonetheless, the economic outlook in the second half of 2021 suggests a gradual increase in yields, which, according to our forecasts, will be slow (more) than last.

Bond market

The recent stabilization in US bonds has also had a positive impact on the German government bond market. US Treasuries were in demand yesterday. The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell from 1.15% to 1.10%.

Stock market

Even if the German stock market went out of trading yesterday with a slight plus, the hanging game continues. Market events are characterized by uncertainties regarding the length and economic effects of the lockdown. DAX + 0.11%, MDAX + 0.38%, TecDAX + 0.53%.

The persistently high number of coronavirus infections has depressed sentiment on Wall Street. However, the prospect of additional government economic aid provided support. Dow -0.03%, S&P-500 + 0.4%, Nasdaq-Comp. + 0.2%. The Nikkei 225 is trading more firmly at 28,698.26 points.

Companies

VW delivered 9.305 million vehicles worldwide in the Corona year 2020, which corresponds to a decrease of 15.2% compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the group was able to expand its market share slightly. In the midst of the Corona crisis, sales of pure e-mobiles rose sharply to 231,600 worldwide, more than three times as many as in the previous year. The plug-in hybrids were also very popular with customers with 190,500 vehicles (+ 175%). The share of electrified vehicles in sales jumped to 10.5% (1.9%) in Western Europe.

The long restaurant closings to contain the corona pandemic have given the Dutch food supplier Just Eat Takeaway a leap in growth. In Q4, orders soared a total of 57%. The company plans to announce its final figures on March 10th, but is already anticipating an increase in sales of more than 50% for the full year.

The US car manufacturer Ford is also benefiting from the renewed desire to buy from Chinese customers. In 2020, the Group sold a total of 602,627 vehicles there, an increase of 6% compared to 2019. Q4, where growth of 30% was achieved, made a particular contribution.

currency

After little trading in the morning, the euro continued to decline.

Oil / gold

Oil prices initially benefited from the decline in US inventories announced the day before, before profit-taking set in later. On balance, there was little momentum in the gold price on the reporting date. In the end, the yellow metal was trading slightly higher.