of Stephan Feuerstein, Editor-in-Chief for Leverage Certificates Trader
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Do not ignore various exceptions!
Of course, this seasonal curve can be broken down in more detail using various pre-filters. For example, pre-election years tend to be better than post-election years. After all, gifts are often given out in pre-election years, whereas in post-election years the unpleasant decisions are more likely to be made (after all, you shouldn’t remember them so well until the next election). But there are also other filter options to tease out a little more added value from the quite interesting seasonality.
From January to the whole year?
At the turn of the year, the “January indicator” is often mentioned. Accordingly, the development of the first week of January should provide a conclusion on the final result for January. And from this knowledge, conclusions can be drawn about the year as a whole. Which sounds quite adventurous, but can also be proven with data. After all, the result of the first week of January (positive or negative) agrees with a very high hit rate with the end of the whole month. Of course, this rule cannot be applied 100 percent successfully either. However, if the past has a high hit rate and the movement can be reasonably justified, this evaluation could continue to be successful in the future. This year, therefore, the signs for another stock market rally and for a positive stock market year do not seem so bad.
We wish you a successful stock market week
Leverage Certificate Traders
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