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Successful DAX week, what follows over 14,000? – columns

The DAX continued to pick up speed on the upside and got off to a successful start in the new trading year. Not only were new records achieved, but the round mark of 14,000 points was also jumped.

With a dynamic start to the year, the DAX hit a new record high on Monday. Even if this was only 4 points above the old high and was sold again, a small plus remained at the end of trading. Tuesday initially continued the consolidation, but then began after its GAP close from the pre-Christmas period.

Wednesday already came up with a new high, which was again slightly above the previous records. There a possible resistance around 13,390 points was sketched out, but it did not last long (retrospect):

Triple high at 13,900 Triple high at 13,900

The rally continued just one day later and the DAX not only reached a more dynamic record high of 14,007 points, but also the round mark of 14,000 points. It was precisely at this mark that the movement low took place on Friday. The 14,000 were thus established and at the end of the week the current record high of 14,131 points was reached.

In the weekly summary, this resulted in four profit days and an increase of 2.41 percentage points:

DAX trading days in week 02/2021 DAX trading days in week 02/2021

The DAX was therefore very good in an international comparison and also better again in a direct comparison to Wall Street:

DAX in the ranking of international indices DAX in the ranking of international indices

The reluctance to look at the US indices now seems to be over.

Political events such as the unrest in the Washington Capitol and the associated “bumpy” transfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden had no negative impact. Rather, they were pleased with the continuation of the vaccinations and also accepted the extension of the lockdown economically.

Negative US labor market data also raised hopes for further stimulus packages. This ultimately spurred the markets and brought with it these new record areas:

DAX record level in the big picture DAX record level in the big picture

Will this dynamic continue into the coming trading week?

The course levels screwed up accordingly. The momentum from the last days of December was initially continued, but could now stall:

DAX upward momentum stagnates DAX upward momentum stagnates

The very steep upward trend has been broken for now. The associated trading question is how far a consolidation can go or whether there is more than one consolidation going on.

After all, the return on Friday found support again at exactly 14,007 points. The level at which the DAX was high on Thursday:

DAX consolidation level in preparation DAX consolidation level in preparation

If this support falls, the next consolidation level could only be found again – with the former breakout on a daily basis – at 13.91x points:

Possible DAX consolidation level Possible DAX consolidation level

The upside would be exciting in the sense of a continuation of the bigger move if we crossed the downtrend from the last high:

DAX signal situation for the start of the week DAX signal situation for the start of the week

Whether the DAX will decide on a direction at the start of trading in the new week will be discussed in advance of the trading session based on the first price indications. Please subscribe to the free mailing list.

Registration for the daily DAX analysis by Bernecker1977.

What economic data can we expect in the coming week?

Only the EU Sentix investor confidence is expected for Monday.

On the other hand, Tuesday starts at lunchtime with an abundance of data from the USA. The Redbook Index and various speeches from the environment of the US Federal Reserve could provide further impetus for the stock market.

On Wednesday we look at wholesale prices from Germany at 8 a.m. and at 11 a.m. at EU industrial production. The consumer price index from the USA 2.30 p.m. and the FED Beige Book at 8 p.m. complete the day.

For Thursday we will again note the US initial claims for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m., which will be published in parallel with the import and export prices. At 6.30 p.m., FED chief Jerome Powell will give a speech.

Friday shows the EU trade balance at 11 a.m. and US retail sales and producer prices at 2:30 p.m. US capacity utilization and US industrial production follow at 3:15 p.m. At 4:00 p.m., the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence joins.

A wealth of data, the forecasts of which are anchored here in detail:

Business dates in the third calendar week of 2021 Business dates in the third calendar week of 2021

I wish us all the best for the new trading week. Yours Andreas Bernstein (Bernecker1977)

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