EUR / USD: 10-EMA holds – UBS column

Review: The EUR / USD currency pair is on a strong uptrend. Downward corrections run out in the area or slightly below the 10-EMA in the daily chart, which is currently trading at USD 1,225. EUR / USD is currently in a downward correction, which has so far been absorbed again by the 10-EMA. In the large picture on the weekly chart, the currency pair is slightly below the important resistance at USD 1,240. In addition, the weekly chart shows a bullish overlap between the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA – a signal that prices will continue to rise in the long term. As long as the 10-EMA continues and does not fall below it in the long term, prices can be expected to continue rising directly even in the short term.

Outlook: The upward trend is clearly intact in the EUR / USD currency pair. The current short-term downward correction could already expire.

The long scenarios: The currency pair catches again in the area of ​​the 10-EMA and turns up again from here. The next target would then again be the area of ​​USD 1,230, followed by the upper trend channel limit of USD 1,240. At the upper limit of the trend channel, however, EUR / USD could turn down again, as before, and move towards the 10-EMA.

The short scenarios: The EUR / USD currency pair breaks below the 10 EMA and develops further downward momentum. As a result, a return to the lower limit of the rising trend channel and to the 50’s EMA, which is currently in the area of ​​USD 1,208, would be expected. But only with a sustained breakthrough below the 50’s EMA would the situation for the currency pair deteriorate significantly and a long-term decline can be expected.

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