Upgrading the stock market in Brazil to neutral – Commerzbank column

The Covid 19 pandemic put the capital markets and the economy in Brazil under more pressure than in many other countries. This is shown by the performance figures of the MSCI indices for 2020. The MSCI Brazil index lost a whopping 20.9% in value in the reporting period despite a clear catch-up race in Q3 2020. This results in relation to the MSCI World Index (+ 14.3%) and the MSCI EM Index (+ 15.8%) were a strong underperformance. This results mainly from from the temporary strong depreciation of the Brazilian real versus the USD and the collapse in prices for many raw materials, which is disproportionately affecting Brazil. However, since we expect the global economic recovery to continue in 2021, we are upgrading our vote for the stock market in Brazil to neutral. An increased global vaccination activity should lead to a normalization of economic and social life with corresponding positive effects on the global economy and company profits. Cyclical sectors (energy, raw materials, banks, etc.) should benefit disproportionately from this. Rising raw material prices should above all more resource-rich countries such as Give Brazil tailwind. The globally (excess) abundant liquidity is likely to flow increasingly into the equity markets, which were among the worst in 2020, such as Brazil. The shift of investment funds out of low-interest bonds and into riskier equity exposures is likely to continue – also supported by a possible renewed increase in the engagement of private customers. A positive driver should also be the forecast strong growth in corporate profits in 2021, which in Brazil should be one of the strongest within the EM after a very weak previous year. However, since we are still quite skeptical about the performance of the Brazilian real (see voting text BRL), an overweighting for the stock market in Brazil is in our opinion. still too early.


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