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In the morning: Moderna, BMW, VW and Tiffany in focus – Nord LB column

China’s service industry grew more slowly in December. According to a survey by Caixin / Markit, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has fallen to 56.3 (November: 57.8) points. The barometer is still very comfortably above the growth mark of 50 points.

The German government’s funding deficit in the first three quarters of 2020 was EUR 157.1 billion, after a surplus of EUR 18.8 billion in the same period of the previous year. Above all, the high expenses for the corona pandemic with falling income were responsible for the high minus.

The economic downturn in the euro zone also slowed according to the final figures in December. Despite the lockdown measures, the IHS Markit Composite Index has risen to 49.1 (initial estimate: 49.8, Nov .: 45.3) points. While the industrial sector continued to grow strongly, the service sector, which is particularly affected by the lockdown measures, lagged significantly behind. In Germany there was again slight growth in the composite index with 52.0 (Nov .: 51.7) points, which was also fed by the industrial sector in this country.

Consumer prices in Germany were 0.3% yoy in December. the same month last year. Compared to November, the inflation rate remained unchanged. In 2020 as a whole, prices rose by 0.5% (2019: + 1.4%).

In the US industry, orders in November increased surprisingly by 1.0% on the previous month.

Bond market

The renewed appetite for risk among investors and the prospect of higher government spending in the USA were poison for the German government securities market. The courses gave way. The emerging majority for the Democrats in the Senate after the Georgia election has sent US Treasuries on the downside. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.04%.

Stock market

The approval of the Moderna company vaccine in the EU and the prospect of the Democrats taking the two Senate seats in Georgia have brought investors back to the German stock market. Only the tech stocks could not follow the positive trend. DAX + 1.76%, MDAX + 0.20%, TecDAX -0.38%. Deutsche Bank gained 5.99% at the top of the DAX, Allianz followed with a plus of 5.20%. Sentiment was generally positive for financials as they could benefit from a rise in US interest rates.

The trend was also mixed on Wall Street. Initial profits were reduced over the course of the protests by Trump supporters at the Capitol. While bank stocks benefited from the heightened risk appetite and the rise in interest rates, tech stocks headed south due to expected stronger regulation by the Biden administration. Dow Jones + 1.47%, S & P-500 + 0.54%, Nasdaq-Comp. -0.61%. Goldman Sachs gained 5.40%, JP Morgan 4.70%. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.60% to 27,490 points.

Companies

The US sales of German car manufacturers in Q4 / 2020 were inconsistent: while VW sold 10.8% (94,330 vehicles) more than in the same period of the previous year, and the sports car subsidiary Porsche also recorded an increase of 6.4%, sales at BMW fell by 2% to 98,750 units.

In the period from November 1st to December 31st, the luxury group Tiffany achieved about 2% more sales than in the same period last year. Growth in China increased by more than 50%, while sales in Europe and North and South America declined, the company said.

currency

Attractive European economic data and the general weakness of the US dollar have further benefited the euro.

Oil / gold

Oil prices continued their upward trend, benefiting from Opec + ‘s decision to reduce oil production overall in February and March. Saudi Arabia will bear the majority of the cuts, while Russia may even increase production slightly. The surprisingly sharp fall in US crude oil inventories also provided support. The gold price fell significantly after its recent soaring.

Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute.

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
– Here is the stream! –

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