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In the morning: Focus on Grenke, TUI and Delivery Hero – Nord LB column

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has lowered its growth forecast for the current year to 3.5% due to the corona pandemic. So far the economists had assumed 5.2%. “After a shrinking Q4 we expect an economic slump of more than 2% now in Q1,” says DIW President Fratzscher. An economic restart in Q2 will only succeed if the wave of infections subsides by February and the restrictions can then be lifted for the most part, it said.

In an economic survey by the Ifo Institute, German car manufacturers and suppliers rated the business situation as worse at the end of 2020. In December they assessed their current situation with minus 5.4 (Nov .: +5.0) points, which is significantly weaker. At the same time, the companies surveyed expect the situation to improve over the next six months: the expected value rose to plus 10.1 (-1.6) points. “The car manufacturers and their suppliers are feeling the renewed lockdown, but they are relying on catch-up effects,” it said.

According to an estimate by Stat. Federal Office, German retailers increased their sales in 2020 by an estimated 5.3% compared to the Corona crisis. increased over the previous year. This is the strongest increase since the statistics began in 1994. Adjusted for prices (real), the increase was 4.1%. The online and mail order business recorded the greatest increases and benefited particularly strongly from the corona lockdown (Jan. to Nov .: + 24%). On the other hand, dark clouds drew in over the stationary retail trade: The trade in textiles, clothing, shoes and leather goods collapsed by 21.1% compared to the previous year.

Unemployment in Germany rose for the first time since 2013. On an annual average in 2020, the number of unemployed climbed by 429,000 to just under 2.7 million. “The consequences of the corona pandemic and the measures to contain it are still very clearly visible. However, the stabilizing effect of short-time work has secured employment and prevented higher unemployment, “said BA boss Scheele.

Bond market

U.a. Surprisingly good retail figures in the past year pushed the prices of German government bonds down on Tuesday. Strong US economic data also had a negative impact. US Treasuries have increased their losses over the course of the year, suffering from the positive mood in the stock market.

Stock market

The indices on the German stock market presented themselves with inconsistent quotations on Tuesday. Investors were unsettled by the extension of the lockdown and the tightening of some of the measures. DAX -0.55%, MDAX + 0.35%, TecDAX + 0.26%. Delivery Hero was the top value in the DAX (+ 5.53%) for the second day in a row, while HelloFresh rose by 5.88% in the MDAX. Both values ​​are among the winners of the lockdown extension.

The US stock exchanges have i.a. benefited from the ISM purchasing managers index for industry, which rose in December to its highest level since August 2018. Investors remained covered, however, as they wait for the outcome of the Georgia runoff election. Dow Jones + 0.55%, S & P-500 + 0.71%, Nasdaq-Comp. + 0.95%. The Nikkei 225 again tended to be easier with 27,056 points.

Companies

The corona pandemic caused new business in Grenke’s leasing division to collapse by 29% to EUR 2.03 billion in 2020. In Q4, the renewed lockdown had a very negative impact. The volume of the newly concluded leasing contracts fell by around 44% to EUR 427 million during this period, the company announced. Nevertheless, the contribution margin rose to 19.5% (Q4 2019: 17.8%). “The beginning of the COVID-19 vaccination gives us the confidence that the restrictions will end soon,” said company boss Leminsky.

TUI shareholders have participated in an a.o. A majority of the AGM approved a capital increase of more than EUR 500 million. The right to exchange silent contributions, which the State Economic Stabilization Fund (WSF) will provide, was also approved.

currency

There was little movement in the euro on the reporting day.

Oil / gold

The hope that an agreement at the Opec + meeting on production volumes for February would not put a strain on oil prices has caused prices to rise on the oil market. Gold was able to build on the price gains of the previous day.

Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute.

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
– Here is the stream! –

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