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DAX: double top? – UBS column

Review: The DAX has recently shown itself to be very volatile again and is increasingly opening with a gap up. This was also the case the day before, when the DAX started trading at 13,890 points, after having gone out of trading at 13,718 points the previous week. The index then went up further and reached a new all-time high at 13,907 points. But then things went downhill again. The DAX went out of trading with a long black daily candle and could now have formed a bearish double-top formation with the highs of 13,903 and 13,907 points. At the close of trading, the DAX was trading at 13,726 points lower. Before the trading session, the DAX was again lower at 13,680 points.

Outlook: The DAX is clearly in an upward trend in the short term and was able to demonstrate its strength again with the latest all-time high. However, the DAX also moves in thin air and has numerous open gaps on the underside.

The short scenarios: The DAX is overbought after the long run-up and is barely making any headway. The bears could continue to take the helm and push the index down for the first open gap on the bottom at 13,601 points. In this area, the important 10-EMA also runs in the vicinity of which downward corrections often expire. If it goes deeper, the bears could push the DAX down to 13,460 points until the next support. However, as long as the 50 EMA can be defended at currently 13,212 points, prices can be expected to continue to rise in the long term.

The long scenarios: The DAX can largely stay above the 10 EMA in the daily chart and continue to rise directly. If the course high of 13,907 points is also exceeded, a direct further run-up to the round mark of 14,000 points can be expected.

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