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CDAX – A very important seismograph – columns

A very important seismograph

After the big annual outlook and the strategic classification of the technical chart DAX® perspectives yesterday, we retain our strategic perspective on the second trading day of the year: A key role is currently played by the CDAX®. The broadest German equity barometer is currently in a textbook-style breakout situation. Finally, at the 2020 year-end share price, the sprint surpassed the old record levels of January 2018 and February 2020 at 1,274 / 1,286 points. The stock barometer had previously been grappling with this resistance zone for six months. The new all-time high (1,314 points) therefore provides a very special investment buy signal, especially since the entire price setback of the past year can ultimately be interpreted as a “V-shaped” price pattern (see chart). In the “uncharted territory” beyond the old highs, the 138.2% Fibonacci projection of the bearish momentum from February / March (1,482 points) defines the next target. The CDAX® currently has a signal character not only on the upper side, but also from a risk perspective. After all, there is a rebreak of the above. It is essential to prevent breakout marks.

CDAX (Monthly)

Chart CDAX

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year CDAX chart

Chart CDAX

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

Start of the year with a bang

This heading describes the start of the gold price in 2021 extremely well. After the precious metal was able to use the combination of the 200-day line (currently at USD 1,835) and the horizontal bastion at USD 1,800 (see “HSBC Annual Outlook”) as a springboard in December, yesterday it also made a spurt over the previous one All-time high from the beginning of August at USD 2,072 existing correction trend (currently at USD 1,902). Thanks to this development, the entire respite of the last few months can ultimately be interpreted as a classic correction flag (see chart). The upwardly resolved consolidation pattern allows an approach to the above. Expect record high. The height of the flag even results in a long-term connection potential of around USD 300, which in turn leads to a target price of around USD 2,200. The flag consolidation described provides a further stepping stone to move into the area of ​​our strategic start-up target at USD 2,250 / 2,280 (see again “HSBC Annual Outlook”). As a hedge on the underside, investors can – depending on their risk appetite – use either the old flag limit or the smoothing of the last 200 days.

Gold (daily)

Chart gold

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year gold chart

Chart gold

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

Multi-year high target?

The technical springboard from the 38-week line (currently at USD 10.78) and a Fibonacci level (USD 9.93) has been able to use the First Majestic share textbook for a new bull market (see “HSBC Daily Trading”) from December 3). A classic (upward) trend-confirming flag is available as a further price driver (see chart). In the long term, the consolidation pattern described lays the foundation for an attempt to reach the multi-year high of August 2016 at USD 19.15. A spurt above the 2020 annual high (USD 14.57) would provide additional pressure in this context. The trend-following indicators provide tailwind. A new MACD buy signal joins the high relative strength (Levy). We would also like to highlight the candlestick constellation in the 6-month range. The “hammer” reversal pattern of the first half of the year was resolved upwards at the end of the year and thus confirmed! Investors who have already invested can adjust their stop loss to the level of the 2019 high of USD 11.62 to secure profits. But this protection also guarantees an attractive risk-reward ratio for new commitments.

First Majestic Silver (Weekly)

Chart First Majestic Silver

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year chart First Majestic Silver

Chart First Majestic Silver

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

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