BTC / USD has been very volatile over the past few days with a prowl to $ 28,000 (-18%) before rebounding just as sharply above $ 30,000. There are thresholds that we should never review again because the investors who are currently entering Bitcoin (BTC) are long-term investors. The “institutionals” are taking the plunge despite the high volatility as they begin to understand that the 21,000,000 Bitcoins will one day be worth more than all the gold in the world.
The Dollar Index remains heavy
The single currency is at its highest for almost 3 years compared to the greenback. One euro is worth $ 1.23. And the Euro weighing half the Dollar Index, the latter remains very heavy low, not far from a 7-year low.
The same goes for the Chinese currency, which is not included in the Dollar Index. The Yuan is at its highest for two and a half years against the US currency, at 6.4 yuan to the dollar. This is the level that prevailed before the start of the trade war initiated by Donald Trump.
Paradoxically, the Middle Kingdom, Patient Zero, did well in 2020 with a record trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States. Over $ 460 billion in the first 11 months of the year.
Note also that the rates are higher in China than in the United States. The interest rate on the 10-year US debt is less than 1% while that of China exceeds 3%.
On the other hand, the Chinese central bank (PBOC) has not signaled that it intends to stem the appreciation of the Remninbi. As a reminder, the PBOC announces every day the threshold from which the yuan can appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% (the daily midpoint fix).
The PBOC also announced this weekend that the Euro will now have more influence in setting the daily midpoint fix, to the detriment of the dollar. This is a consequence of the signing of the recent trade treaty between the EU and China.
The appreciation of the yuan over the past 6 months is a record high (+ 8%) and Ken Cheung, the chief Forex strategist at Mizuho Bank, believes the PBOC will let the yuan appreciate throughout the period. year 2021. He anticipates 6.3 by the end of March.
The day could be very eventful due to the vote of the US Congress (at 7 p.m. French time) to certify, or not, the US presidential election. Several Republican senators led by Ted Cruz (Texas) will oppose it.
Two million Trumpists, many of whom are probably armed (which is authorized by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution), are on their way to Washington with the firm intention of putting pressure on the Senators to announce a recount of the United States. voice.
Donald Trump stepped up the pressure at a rally in Dalton on Monday, announcing big revelations will be made over the next two weeks. At the same time, an extremely well-known lawyer in the United States (@LlinWood) tweeted that he would release an encryption key allowing access to thousands of pedophilia videos (#epstein) involving many powerful in the United States.
This is the final push before today’s vote. The Wisconsin legislature yesterday tabled a resolution to revoke his state’s votes. And who wins Wisconsin, wins the US presidency … 2021 is off to a flying start and the markets may get nervous, Bitcoin included.
Watch out for the $ which has an inverse correlation with BTC. A re-election of Trump would most likely mean sending a check for $ 2,000 to every American. The more the US debt swells, the more Bitcoin will appreciate …
Bitcoin on Google Trend
The number of searches for the word Bitcoin on Google has been increasing sharply in recent weeks and the trend is not weakening. The intensity of interest in cryptocurrency is 40% of its peak in 2017, when we hit $ 20,000. 55% in France.
The bullish rally is likely to continue if the plebs mingle with the institutional enthusiasm. Even the big newspapers won over by the system are forced to talk about it. The Financial Times made headlines on January 04. Les Echos point out that BlackRock (the largest investment fund in the world with more than $ 6 trillion in management) is seriously interested.
Even Reuters reports that JP Morgan sees “digital gold” hitting $ 146,000 (we’re a long way off the mark but it’s a step in the right direction):
The number of active addresses is also a clear sign of the renewed interest in the only true universal currency, stateless, anti-inflationary and permissionless:
The same goes for the volume of BTC traded every day on the blockchain. We set a new daily record of over $ 8 billion on December 28. It is currently traded on a weekly average of the equivalent of $ 5 billion per day. We will soon reach the symbolic level of $ 10 trillion exchanged thanks to Bitcoin since its inception 12 years ago.
To end this analysis released every Wednesday, note that Saudi Arabia announced yesterday that it will cut oil production by one million barrels as early as February. The price of a barrel immediately soared above $ 50 after this announcement. It has been at its highest for a year. If Saudi Arabia has decided to raise prices sustainably, this is a blessing for Bitcoin.
There is no reason to be dizzy at current levels. The $ 40,000 is in the crosshairs.
- BTC / USD weekly chart (one candle = one week)