D.he chief economist of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen, Gertrud Traud, has a reputation to defend with her forecasts for the German share index. Time and again, she has predicted its status with remarkable accuracy over months, even over a year. Even in the difficult year 2020, she succeeded again. The forecast she made a year ago was 13,500 points, and the Dax closed at 13,719 points on the last trading day.
This is all the more noticeable as Traud could have guessed as little as anyone else how the corona pandemic would shake the global economy. But the alternatives to investing in shares remain rare, and recently hopes of an end to the pandemic thanks to the start of vaccinations have driven prices again. The drastic drop in the Dax in spring to 8256 points has long been forgotten. One may be amazed that the worst economic crisis in a long time has not had a stronger impact on the stock markets – but it is just the way it is.
A deviation of a good 200 points is already low, but in the previous year Traud had missed the year-end level by just 49 points. In 2011 it was even less, namely just two points, but it was about a forecast from September for the end of the year. The deviation from 112 points the following year was also remarkably small.
The chief economist of the Frankfurt credit institute was only right off the mark in 2018, when she saw the Dax at 12,300 points at the beginning of the year at the end of December, but actually only achieved 10,559 points. But even then, investors were still better off if they were guided by their forecast than that of other experts – because on average, the economists of the big banks had predicted 13,900 points at the end of the year.
And what does Traud expect now in 2021? At the end of the year she sees the Dax at 14,000 points, which makes her more skeptical than the industry as a whole, the average of the forecasts is 14476. Either way: According to the experts, the trees do not grow into the sky, on Monday the index was already at almost 13900. Resubmission in twelve months.