Markets

DAX® – year-end within striking distance of record high – columns

Year-end within striking distance of the record high

In the last few meters of the special year 2020, the DAX® achieved a new all-time high (13,903 points). Although the share barometer was barely able to do this feat on the basis of the year-end price, this development still offers a good starting point for the start of the year 2021. An important argument in this context is the ideal typical “hammer” in the annual chart. This constructive candlestick pattern even has a white candle body and a Particularly emphasized fuse. After all, the past year was characterized by the largest high-low range in the history of the DAX®. But there are also a number of technical chart drivers available on a weekly basis. The breather from September to November can be interpreted as a classic flag consolidation. On the other hand, the October setback in conjunction with the dynamic recovery from November forms a so-called “V-pattern” (see chart). Last but not least, in this context the leap over the horizontal barriers at around 13,500 points must be made (see annual outlook; continued below).

DAX® (Weekly)

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year DAX® chart

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

The trend is your friend until …

The last-mentioned breakout – including new record highs – succeeded the German standard values ​​in the post-Christmas week with an upward price gap (13,602 to 13,717 points). The bottom line is that the three price patterns listed suggest that the rally will continue. In the “uncharted territory” beyond the above. The 138.2% fibonacci projection of the correction impulse from September to November 2020 defines an all-time high of 13,903 points, one of the few remaining starting points at 14,228 points. But also from a risk point of view, the outbreak scenario described offers chart-motivated investors an important aid: Since the above “Breakaway gap” provides a special exclamation mark, the lower edge of the price gap (13,602 points) marks a first important hold line. This is all the more true as this level harmonizes perfectly with the old record high of January 2018 at 13,597 points. However, we would like to particularly emphasize the horizontal support level at around 13,300 points. In the event of a rebreak of this key brand, investors would have to seriously deal with a possible “false break” on the upside.

DAX® (Weekly)

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

Signalers activated at 26 USD!

Using the Ichimoku monthly chart, we had identified the most important key brands for the silver price in our technical annual outlook. First there is the strategic hedge at around USD 21. As a reminder: the neck zone of the lower reversal of the last few years at USD 21.11 (2016 high) forms at this level together with a Fibonacci cluster from the 61.8% retracement of the entire bull market since the beginning of the millennium (21.41 USD) and the 50% correction of the upward movement from March to August (USD 20.73) an extremely important holding bundle. The accumulation support arising here is rounded off by an Ichimoku stop line (Kijun-sen) at USD 20.73. Apart from this strategic stop-loss mark, the precious metal succeeded in setting an important course on the upside in the last few meters of 2020. The silver price recently passed the various lows of 2011/12 at around USD 26. Activating this signaling device may provide the ideal starting point to capitalize on the seasonally favorable period at the beginning of the year.

Silver (monthly)

Chart silver

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year silver chart

Chart silver

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

Flag as an additional price driver

In other words: there is a high probability that the silver price has already made a key change in the outlook for 2021. In order to fill this statement with additional life, we break down the time level and additionally analyze the precious metal on a daily basis. In the shorter term, the breather from August to December 2020 can ultimately be interpreted as a trend-confirming flag. Thanks to the dissolution of this classic consolidation pattern, the upward trend in the silver price should pick up speed again. The two lows at USD 21.64 and USD 21.88 can also be interpreted as a double bottom (see chart). Both chart formations suggest a reunion with the high from the beginning of August at USD 29.84. Beyond the annual high of 2020, the way would even be free to target the highs at a good 35 USD as a long-term starting target from the annual outlook. From a trading point of view, the combination of the 50-day line (currently at USD 24.60) and the upper flag limit (currently at USD 24.18) offers investors the option of closely hedging new long-term exposures.

Silver (daily)

Chart silver

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

Are you interested in a daily delivery of our newsletter?

Subscribe for free

Important instructions
Advertising notice

HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG
Derivatives Public Distribution
Königsallee 21-23
40212 Düsseldorf

Free info line: 0800/4000 910
From abroad: 00800/4000 9100 (free of charge)
Hotline for consultants: 0211 / 910-4722
Fax: 0211 / 910-91936
Homepage: www.hsbc-zertifikate.de
Email: certificates@hsbc.de

2)Transaction costs and your custody account price (if any) are not taken into account in the presentation and have a negative effect on the performance of the investment.

Tags

Related Articles

Back to top button
Close
Close