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First DAX analysis for the start in 2021, Bitcoin is already booming – columns

The new stock market year starts with the hope that the corona pandemic will be contained quickly. The holidays and the turn of the year have subsided the numbers somewhat, the vaccinations have progressed and thus created positive conditions for the first courses. What can you expect? First of all, of course, we wish you a healthy and successful stock market year 2021!

On the last days of trading in 2020, the DAX managed to expand its upward trend again. After Christmas, the leap over the old all-time high from February and on the following day another premium, which now set a new all-time high close to the 14,000 threshold with 13,903 points.

Viewed over the year as a whole, the DAX thus achieved a price gain. The Dow Jones was slightly stronger with more than 6 percent and the US technology index Nasdaq led the way with plus 45 percent, as the overview from teletrader shows here:

Ranking of the indices in 2020 Ranking of the indices in 2020

In the chart of last year you can clearly see the area of ​​the last movements:

DAX and its all-time high DAX and its all-time high

What is explosive here is that although we reached new highs, we were unable to maintain them. At the end of the year, the index closed below this range, as a look at the last few trading days shows:

Trading days last DAX week (from finanzen.net) Trading days last DAX week (from finanzen.net)

The 13,903 counters were possibly too much increase in too short a time. After all, a week earlier we were still down at 13,060 points. A consolidation after the new highs was therefore not surprising and took place from Tuesday morning until the end of trading on the last Wednesday 2 p.m. of last year:

DAX consolidation of the new highs at the end of 2020 DAX consolidation of the new highs at the end of 2020

The DAX closed below 13,800 and thus also below the highs from February. Will there be a fight right at the start of the new year and how could the start take place under these conditions?

Traditionally, there is little volume on the market between the holidays. Therefore you have to put all movements into perspective. The new all-time highs have nevertheless been reached and could now seek confirmation again.

Around 13,760 to 13,800 we had some striking highs in mid-December, which can now form a support area:

DAX support currently at the start of trading DAX support currently at the start of trading

On the bottom we look directly at a GAP that was created after Christmas. The scenarios GAP-close or a return to the highs are conceivable here:

DAX scenarios at the start of the year DAX scenarios at the start of the year

The US government’s new aid program has not lessened the plant emergency. Statistically, a new year can also be expected to include new investment funds that are looking for alternatives in the low-interest environment.

An alternative in the last few weeks was Bitcoin, which started a crazy rally over the turn of the year. This is currently quoted at 34,000 US dollars, an increase of around 30 percent since Christmas:

Bitcoin with a strong rally Bitcoin with a strong rally

The stock indices are unlikely to start the new year that fast. What emerges here in the preliminary market, however, will be incorporated into my daily market outlook again tomorrow.

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Let’s take a look at the dates for the coming week.

Outlook for the next dates

The first week of trading awaits with a large amount of data without a holiday interruption.

The purchasing managers’ indices from Germany at 9.55 a.m. and 10.00 a.m. from the EU are important for Monday.

Tuesday is waiting for retail sales from Germany at 8:00 a.m. The German unemployment rate follows at 9.55 a.m. and then the ISM index from the USA for the manufacturing sector at 4 p.m.

Wednesday is dominated by US labor market data from the ADP agency’s point of view at 2:15 p.m. Markit PMI data from Germany can also be viewed in the morning and from the USA in the afternoon.

The EU’s consumer price index, consumer confidence and business climate index will be published on Thursday at 11.00 a.m. In the afternoon, the initial applications for unemployment benefits and the trade balance are due again at 2.30 p.m. This trading day closes at 4 p.m. with the ISm index for the non-manufacturing sector.

For Friday you can look forward to Germany’s trade and current account at 8:00 a.m. At 2:30 p.m. the appointment of the week follows – the official US labor market statistics.

All dates for the coming week are listed here with the forecasts:

Business dates of week 02/2020 Business dates of week 02/2020

I wish us every success in the New Year’s retail business. Yours Andreas Bernstein (Bernecker1977)

Feel free to check out the trading chat for more opinions

or in the forum at ariva:

https://www.ariva.de/forum/2021-qv-gdaxi-dj-gold-eurusd-jpy-573050#bottom

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