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S&P 500: Course for 3,800 points? – UBS column

Review: The S&P 500 has been moving in an upward trend for years as a look at the weekly chart shows. At the end of November, the important long-term Fibonacci fan was broken up at 3,640 points, generating a long-term strength signal. Downward corrections then ended directly in the area of ‚Äč‚Äčthis Fibonacci fan. The day before, the S&P 500 started trading with a strong gap-up and rose to 3,740 points at the daily high. This marked a new all-time high in the S&P 500 and underscored the strength of the index. After the gap-up from the previous day, the S&P 500 now also moves in thin air. Gaps are usually closed again. The gap in the price on the bottom could serve as an orientation marker for the bears.

Outlook: The upward trend in the S&P 500 is clearly intact, the bulls could now approach the 3,800 point mark after the price increase from the previous day.

The long scenarios: The S&P 500 shows further strength as long as the 10-EMA is no longer undercut at currently 3,700 points. In the past, downward corrections have largely ended at or slightly below the 10-EMA. A renewed price increase above the 10 EMA usually marked the beginning of a new upward wave in the S&P 500. The next target for the bulls is now 3,750 points, above which a price increase to the level of 3,800 points would be expected.

The short scenarios: The S&P 500 turns down again and takes a direct course to the lower opening price gap from the previous day at 3,703 points. The 10 EMA is only slightly lower here. If the bears manage a sustained slide below the 10-EMA, this would be a clear short-term signal of weakness. The next starting point would then be the support of 3,650 points. If it goes deeper, the 50 EMA could be increased by 3,590 points.

Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute.

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
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