Christmas week in the DAX started with increased volatility, but then ended in a conciliatory manner. With a gap of around 200 points from the all-time high, the index keeps all chances of a new record open before the turn of the year.
Monday initially shocked investors, who had targeted the all-time high the previous day. The week started very weakly and once again brought negative wind to the floor with the immersion in the well-known range. The DAX slipped down to 13,060 points before more buyers appeared again.
They took courage after this price slide and managed to leave the range again on Tuesday. The Wednesday before Christmas built this buy signal further and with the high point at 13,601 points almost a complete reversal on the Monday losses:
DAX almost catches up weekly loss
Although the volume fell, the direction was maintained until the end of trading. Overall, the DAX lost a few points on a weekly basis, but was able to bring December back into positive territory and also steer the current year into positive territory with +1.28 percent.
The three trading days before Christmas were outlined as follows:
DAX trading days before Christmas 2020
What can you do after leaving the range now expect back on the top?
DAX range left behind
In addition, I am now looking at the different time levels.
The dynamics of the last two days were high and positive. So the big CAP became almost closed on Monday. It corresponds to the bulls’ first target area. Above this, the index can go straight to the annual high:
DAX targets new week
The momentum of the last movement allows this scenario to gain the upper hand, in addition, in the USA on Christmas Day with shortened trading, there were also no price drops:
DAX on the way to an all-time high
For the next three trading days, the areas from mid-December in the chart would be exciting:
Is the DAX heading towards the all-time high?
Above all, we had reached the all-time high from February up to 20 points and only had to overcome a difference of 200 points in the large chart:
DAX all-time high in view
Statistically speaking, there are no longer any major price drops at the turn of the year. Many market participants are already on vacation and the “window dressing” is more likely to bring well-run stocks – such as the Delivery Hero in the DAX or an Amazon, Tesla and Apple in the USA – into the focus of investors.
However, there is also economic data to look at.
On Monday, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index at 4.30 p.m., the most important economic figure, is not due until the afternoon.
There are also few appointments on Tuesdays. The focus is on 2:55 p.m. with the US Redbook Index.
On Wednesday at 8:00 a.m., German retail data will be published, 2:30 p.m. the US merchandise trade balance and US wholesale inventories, and 3:45 p.m. the Chicago purchasing managers’ index.
After that, trading is over for Europe and there is still a little opportunity to place the last orders in the USA. 2.30 p.m., the last flood of data can be expected with the weekly initial applications for unemployment benefits.
All forecasts for these dates can be found in this table.
Business dates for KW53
I wish you a peaceful end to the year and good luck for the last few days of trading.
Your Andreas Bernstein (Bernecker1977)
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