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DAX: run-up to the open gap? – UBS column

Review: The DAX was able to recover a little after the price slump on Monday and continued the upward trend on the previous day. At the close of trading the day before, the index was trading at 13,418 points, after reaching its low of 13,060 points on Monday. What is important now is the 10 EMA at 13,400 points. Here the DAX has to increase sustainably so that a new strength signal can be generated. If the DAX can only break through slightly upwards here and then dip back down again, a new price decline below 13,400 points would result in a new weakness signal. In the medium term, however, the DAX can still be classified as bullish as long as it does not fall below the 50 EMA in the daily chart at 13,100 points.

Outlook: The DAX is still in a long sideways phase and a sustainable directional decision has not yet been made.

The long scenarios: The DAX can continue to rise above the 10 EMA and set course for the 13,500 point mark. If it goes higher, a run-up to the still open gap at 13,624 points would be expected. A new attack by the bulls on the all-time high of 13,795 points, where the DAX had only narrowly failed with the development high of 13,774 points, would then be expected.

The short scenarios: the DAX can only rise slightly above the 10-EMA and then drop straight back down again. The next big target for the bears would then be seen at the 50 EMA at 13,100 points. The lower limit of the rising trend channel also runs here. If the DAX slips down here, the still open gap could be targeted at 13,595 points.

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With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
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