Brexit: 1/3 or 1/4 fish? The last big question in 2020 – columns

The pound is recovering

If you believe press reports, the negotiations between the EU and UK are only about a handful of fish. According to press releases, the British now only want to pull 1/3 of the fish from their own waters, the Europeans want to allow them 1/4. I am carefull. The fact that the supposedly so complex negotiations are suddenly reduced to a problem that every family knows from carving the Christmas carp, is a bit too beautiful news headline for me to believe it completely. It may also be that a day without the Calais-Dover ferry traffic and instead with miles of lorry queuing has given the British government a reasonable willingness to compromise. Perhaps the ferries should have closed in 2016? Perhaps that would have saved many nonsensical rounds of negotiations?

Anyway: new hope for a deal before December 30th. (the current deadline!) and talks between the British Prime Minister and the French President about the supply of goods to the island have once again nourished new hopes and brought EUR-GBP briefly below the 0.91 mark. And if this hope is confirmed, there might be a small GBP rally. For those of you who have not yet got my warning out of their ears: In the medium term, Brexit will still not end in GBP positively. If only because the British can fish a little more, but Brexit may have heralded the beginning of the end of London’s dominance as a European financial center. There shouldn’t be enough fish in the waters around the island to compensate for this effect.

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