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In the morning: Ceconomy, VW, Hennes & Mauritz and Inditex in focus – Nord LB column

As expected, growth in China’s industry continued for the eighth time in a row in November. Industrial production accelerated by 7% compared to the previous year. In October the expansion was 6.9%. China is benefiting from stronger demand, higher credit growth and stimulus measures.

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco), the Swiss economy will be slowed somewhat less severely by the corona pandemic in 2020 than previously assumed. Seco expects GDP to decline by 3.3% this year (previously: 3.8%). For 2021, however, in view of the second wave of pandemics, economists have reduced their forecast to a value of + 3.0% (previously: + 3.8%).

US industrial production increased by 0.4% m / m in November, which was ultimately in line with expectations. The catching-up process continues, but slowly. In addition, industrial production is still just under 5.5% below the February level. The marginally declining New York Empire State Survey as the first indicator for December shows that the momentum appears to remain low. Finally, relatively high numbers of infections continue to create uncertainty among consumers and producers, which will dampen consumption and investment. The recovery is therefore likely to continue only very slowly or hardly at all in the fourth quarter: We expect GDP to rise by an annualized 3% q / q. However, these assessments are associated with the greatest uncertainty – as long as only the first November data are published. The outlook for 2021 is more important: only if the vaccines are really safe can they provide relief.

Bond market

The lack of really price-moving economic data has ensured quiet trading in German government bonds. Nevertheless, the optimistic mood in the financial markets weighed on the bonds that were considered safe. US Treasury bond prices reacted only cautiously to the latest US economic data. However, a firmer Wall Street resulted in lower prices.

Stock market

The German stock market was also friendly yesterday. Will there still be a year-end rally? Recently, the air for a sustainable increase in the courses was pretty thin. DAX + 1.06%, MDAX + 0.50%, TecDAX + 1.13%. After the dispute over the leadership role of CEO Diess was settled, VW took the lead in the DAX with + 7.62%.

Movement in the dispute over further economic aid gave Wall Street a boost. However, due to the rising number of coronavirus infections and in anticipation of the monetary policy advice of the US Federal Reserve, investors held back with larger purchases. Dow + 1.1%; S&P 500 + 1.3%; Nasdaq + 1.3%. Nikkei-225 friendlier at 26,757.40 points.

Companies

The electronics trading holding Ceconomy, the parent company of Media Markt and Saturn, did well in terms of sales in the 2019/20 financial year (30.09.), Thanks mainly to increasing business in Q4. Revenues only fell by 1.8% to EUR 20.8 billion, which was not least due to increasing online sales during the corona-related closings. On the other hand, things did not look so good for adjusted operating profit (EBIT), which slumped to EUR 236 (403) million.

The Spanish textile retailer Inditex suffered a sales decline of 14% to EUR 6.05 billion in the period from August to October. Net profit fell by 26% to EUR 866 million. Business has been developing weaker again since November due to new corona restrictions.

The Swedish textile chain Hennes & Mauritz also suffered from the Corona crisis in Q4. Due to customer reluctance to buy, net sales in local currency decreased by 10% to SEK 52.5 billion. As a result of the 2nd Corona wave there was last (Oct. 22nd to Nov. 30th) a decrease in revenues of 22%.

currency

The euro had a quiet day with a slightly positive trend.

Oil / gold

According to a report by the International Energy Agency, oil prices made up for initial losses and rose somewhat. Gold tended a little friendlier on the reporting day.

Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute.

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
– Here is the stream! –

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