This announcement shouldn’t be big news anymore, but after the presidential election no final result had been announced even six weeks after the polls. This now seems to be the case: yesterday the electors, that is, the envoys from the US states in the Electoral College, voted 306 to 232 for the Democratic challenger Joe Biden. The proportion of votes is exactly the same as four years ago, when Donald Trump was able to prevail over Hilary Clinton. This should decide the presidential election on November 3rd: Joe Biden should become the US president from January 20th, 2021.
When the newly composed Congress meets for the first time on January 6, yesterday’s result should still be formally confirmed. On January 20, the previous President Donald Trump should be replaced with the swearing-in of Joe Biden as the 46th US President.
Another important date will be January 5th, when by-elections for two more Senate posts in Georgia will take place. These two positions decide what the future majority in the Senate will look like. So far, the Republicans are 50:48 ahead of the game. But if two democratic politicians prevail, the demo cards would even result in a potential majority in the Senate due to the resulting stalemate, since in this case the vote of the US Vice President decides.
Until recently, Trump had questioned the results of the elections in some states. In particular, the extension of the deadline for postal votes, the security of the voting machines used and the correctness of the counting of votes were called into question by the incumbent. However, several dozen lawsuits found no legal support from the judges – even in the Supreme Court, which had previously been amended.
Future President Biden will primarily focus on combating the spread of Covid-19 for the first few weeks. A more careful approach (distance, mask, hygiene), observance of scientific advice and a smooth vaccination campaign will probably be the focus. On many issues, the future President Biden is likely to make a nearly 180-degree turn compared to his predecessor – similar to what was the case four years ago. Under Biden, the USA should quickly recognize the Paris climate protection agreement again and otherwise emphasize cooperation in international organizations (WTO, WHO) and alliances (NATO). So diplomacy is returning to the White House. While the partners in Europe and America can probably take a deep breath when it comes to trade policy, Biden will remain tough on China: Customs policy is unlikely to be changed, and technology transfer is being fought. The observance of human rights will certainly also be addressed more strongly. Since there was no “blue wave”, there will only be a moderately expansive fiscal policy – but at least no tax increases. That will continue to stimulate the financial markets in the future!
Conclusion: Actually, it should only be a formality in the USA. But after this presidential election and the results in some lost states, which Donald Trump had questioned, the outcome of the election was not finally decided until yesterday. After yesterday’s electoral vote in Electoral College with 306 to 232, it is now foreseeable that Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the USA on January 20, 2021. As with its predecessor, there is likely to be a 180-degree turnaround in politics in many areas – but the financial markets are certainly most pleased about a fiscal policy that is likely to be expansive without tax increases and a more moderate trade policy.
Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:
With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
– Here is the stream! –