ABN Amro Sector forecast 2021-2022: ‘Resilience determines corona recovery’

For example, the crisis in 2020 has left deep marks in the leisure sector (-50 percent) and retail (-8 percent) and several branches will not have fully recovered next year, ABN Amro notes.

‘Until there is group immunity, there is a good chance that cinemas, eateries, museums, amusement parks and the travel industry will not be able to fully utilize the capacity. Nevertheless, revenues are showing a recovery, partly due to resilience in the hospitality industry. For example, restaurants quickly switched to meal delivery, resulting in an explosive increase in delivery turnover in April (+97 percent) and November (+76 percent). Retail has also been hit hard, although the consequences are not equally great everywhere. For example, sales of cars, clothing and shoes fell sharply, while online sales in supermarkets (+195 percent) and electronics (+66 percent) in particular accelerated compared to 2019, especially in November. ABN Amro expects both sectors to eventually recover. For leisure, in particular, a substantial recovery is in prospect in 2021 (+70 percent) and 2022 (+15 percent), but will nevertheless remain below the pre-corona level. To a lesser extent, this also applies to retail, with 5 percent growth in 2021 and 2 percent in 2022. The picture also varied in transport and logistics. Because sectors came to a standstill, there was much less cargo, while some companies had to pull out all the stops to provide extra supplies to supermarkets and to ensure the supply of masks and other medical products. It is expected that 2021 (+2.5 percent) and 2022 (+3.5 percent) will be calmer. ‘

Claims crisis can be limited by new revenue models
According to the new forecast, industry and business services are showing the resilience to find a way out of the crisis. For example, industrial production in the Netherlands (-6.5 percent) fell less sharply than in other countries, because according to ABN Amro, companies responded well to the crisis. Chemical factories and plastic packers produced millions of bottles of hand soap or disinfectant handles. The plastics industry produced cough screens and the electrical equipment industry provided additional respiratory equipment. With a growth of 3.5 percent in 2021 and 4 percent in 2022, the industry is in much better shape than last year, ‘says Franka Rolvink Couzy, Head of Sector Research at ABN Amro.

World has changed after the crisis
Business services have also managed to limit the damage – despite a 6 percent contraction. This is especially the case for employment agencies that responded well to shifts by deploying temporary workers in places where the demand for labor did increase, such as at test streets, distribution centers and supermarkets. Rolvink Couzy: ‘Companies that are better prepared for new events can limit the damage of a crisis by tapping into other sources of income. Those who wait will pause for two years to discover that the world has changed after the crisis. It is precisely in a crisis that new needs arise and companies that manage to respond to them will emerge more strongly. A low cost base, financial and operational buffers and a good view of what is to come ensure resilience. This not only ensures a faster recovery after corona, but also more flexibility in the future. ‘


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