DAX: Before a new downward trend? – UBS column

Review: The DAX is still in its eternally long sideways phase. But now a downward trend could be imminent. After the low on Friday at 13,009 points directly at the 50 EMA, the index rose significantly again and rose to 13,292 points the day before. However, the resistance at 13,300 points could no longer be exceeded. The prices then crumbled again and the DAX went out of trading with a very bearish little candle of the day. It is possible that the DAX is already in a first upward correction in the new downward trend, with prices now falling again as a result.

Outlook: If the bearish daily candle is confirmed, the index is likely to face a new downward wave.

The short scenarios: the DAX is already lower at 13,200 points and is continuing its downward trend. The first starting area would then be the 50 EMA in the area of ​​13,000 points, which is also where the lower limit of the rising trend channel runs. If the index slips out of the trend channel downwards, the bears could take a course on the still open lower gap at 12,595 points, where the 200 EMA is only slightly lower at 12,572 points. Below the 200 EMA, the bears could set course for the next gap at 12,329 points. Below that, the next gap would be 11,838 points. The monthly chart shows the massive resistance range from 13,350 points, where the DAX had repeatedly bounced down in previous years. For December, the DAX has so far formed a black monthly candle, which also indicates that prices are falling again.

The long scenarios: The DAX can exceed the resistance range at 13,300 / 13,350 points. In this case, another attack on the resistance by 13,450 points and a run-up to the open gap at 13,500 points would be expected.

Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute.

With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
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