The Bundesbank has slightly reduced its economic forecast for the coming year due to the spreading second wave of pandemics and renewed tough containment measures. For 2021, a calendar-adjusted increase in gross domestic product of 3.0% is now expected instead of 3.2% as before. For the current year, however, it is a little less pessimistic. It now anticipates a decline in economic output of 5.5% instead of 7.1% as before. Growth of 4.5% is forecast for 2022 (June forecast: 3.8%) and 1.8% for 2023.
The lower value added tax and falling energy costs are pushing the inflation rate in Germany to its lowest level in almost six years. Consumer prices fell in November by 0.3% compared to the same month last year. “One of the reasons for the negative inflation rate was still the temporary lowering of VAT rates,” explained the statisticians.
US consumer sentiment surprisingly brightened in December. The consumer confidence barometer rose to 81.4 from 76.9 in November. Experts had expected a slight decrease to 76.5 points. The respondents assessed their situation and the prospects better than before. • Did anyone expect a solution on the subject of Brexit yesterday? The deadline passed and a solution was repeatedly not found. The talks continue.
German government bonds were in demand at the end of the week. The Brexit uncertainty and the worsening Corona crisis ensured this. The data on US consumer sentiment in December turned out to be significantly better than expected, but they did little to move US Treasury bond prices.
The German stock market ended the week weaker. The factors that boosted German government bonds pushed share prices into negative territory. DAX -1.36%, MDAX -0.27%, TecDAX -0.41%.
Doubts about the imminent implementation of a new aid package for the US economy suffering from the corona pandemic have largely weighed on Wall Street. Dow Jones + 0.55%; S&P 500 -0.13%; Nasdaq -0.235%. Nikkei-225 firmer at 26,732.42 points.
The Zurich Insurance Group is expanding its property and casualty insurance business in the USA with an acquisition. Together with Farmers Exchanges, Zurich is taking over the American property and casualty insurance business from MetLife for USD 3.94 billion. Zurich is contributing $ 2.43 billion and the Farmers Exchanges $ 1.51 billion. The completion of the transaction is subject to the approval of the regulatory authorities.
Lufthansa sees an upturn in its business thanks to the upcoming approvals of corona vaccinations. “Since there is a concrete prospect of an effective vaccine, our bookings for next summer have tripled,” said CEO Spohr. After the crisis year 2020, Spohr is therefore more optimistic for 2021 and assumes that in the coming year, on average, half of the level of 2019 can be achieved again.
Fraport: Frankfurt Airport counted 656,420 passengers in November, a decrease of 87% compared to the same month last year. Cumulative over the first eleven months of the year, the number of passengers fell by 72.8%. The cargo volume, on the other hand, increased to 194,619 tons for the second month in a row. This corresponds to an increase of 4.3% compared to the same month last year.
Carl Zeiss Meditec is sticking to its goals for the current fiscal year. The company continues to anticipate a recovery in the markets and growth in sales and operating profit for the 2020/21 financial year. Due to the corona, however, the first few months of the new financial year are likely to be weaker.
After the ECB stated that it was “very vigilant” with regard to the euro exchange rate, the euro went backwards.
Oil / gold
The still pending political agreement in the USA on another corona aid package weighed on oil prices. Gold presented itself more firmly at the end of the week.
Livestream on December 14th, 2020 from 6 p.m .:
With Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the Ifo Institute: Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe
– Here is the stream! –