Economy & Politics

Demography Labor market 2030: More over 65-year-olds than under 20-year-olds

According to current calculations, the tipping point in the demographic change on the labor market will be reached by 2030 at the latest.C. Hardt / Future Image / imago images

The teenagers still have the upper hand on the German labor market compared to the grandparents’ generation. But that will change soon. The Federal Statistical Office compared the number of economically active persons (employed or unemployed) among the 15 to 19 year olds with that of people between 65 and 74 years of age. In 2019, both groups had 1.2 million economically active persons. The young people were therefore more represented, as only half as many years were taken into account. But the seniors are catching up.

The job market is getting older

According to current calculations, the tipping point in the demographic change on the labor market will be reached by 2030 at the latest. The number of teenagers is forecast to drop to around 1.1 million. In the case of the elderly, however, an increase to 1.5 or even 2.4 million people is possible.

When it comes to the prognoses for young people, statisticians are quite certain. The Federal Statistical Office announced that it will probably develop in a similar way to that in the past ten years. In contrast, there are more variables for those in employment aged 65 and over. In order to reach the mark of two million, two assumptions must be made:

  1. The trend of the past 20 years continues. More and more older people are generally retained in the labor market (one reason is the increasingly good education, especially of women, who therefore remain in demand even in older workers).
  2. Due to the gradual increase in the retirement age to 67, the rate of the older labor force continues to rise.

Fewer and fewer people in employment

In the long run, young and old could get closer again. For the year 2060, the so-called labor force forecast for 2020 came to this result: 1.0 to 1.1 million people in the younger and 1.2 to 2.2 million in the older age group. The general decline is again due to demographic change. For the next 25 years, the departure of the “baby boomers”, the baby boomers born between 1955 and 1970, will be particularly noticeable.

In 2019, there were 43.6 million economically active persons between 15 and 74 years of age in Germany. In 2060 the number will drop to at least 41.5 million. According to statisticians, a drop to 33.3 million is conceivable. In addition to immigration from abroad, that depends on whether more people (especially women) in general stay longer in the labor market.

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