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DAX® – A thick board – columns

A thick board

Everything as usual: The DAX® continues to hesitate to take up the picture chosen yesterday again. The series of tight diurnal fluctuations and small candle bodies continues. In terms of the chart, it hardly needs to be mentioned that the German standard values ​​like the famous rabbit in front of the queue pause in the area of ​​the resistance zone between 13,300 points and 13,460 points. This lid is also essential. We even consider it more important than the previous record level of 13,795 points. In other words: A jump over this resistance zone should breathe new life into the DAX® and should then also result in a new all-time high. The (too) good mood on the stock market could prove to be the Achilles’ heel. It does not matter which yardstick investors use. The AAII survey, the CNN Fear & Greed Index and the various put / call ratios all signal a certain euphoria. Since the American indices were also unable to produce any new record highs yesterday, the DAX® is likely to remain in the sideways shock of recent weeks at the end of the week.

DAX® (Daily)

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year DAX® chart

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

S-K-S trend reversal

We regularly filter the 160 German standard values ​​from DAX®, MDAX® and SDAX® based on various technical criteria, such as: B. Momentum, MACD, Moving Averages, Kelly Factor, RSL. On balance, we combine these standards in a so-called multi-factor scoring model with a clear, trend-following character. With the help of this objective evaluation, a title was recently washed to the surface that we have not analyzed for a long time: the Klöckner share. And the paper is currently more than exciting. Finally, there is a completed, inverse shoulder-head-shoulder formation (see chart). The lower reversal is achieved by jumping over a Fibonacci level (EUR 6.62), recapturing the lows of 2012/15/16 at EUR 6.49 / 6.90 / 7.03 and the spurt over the 38- Monthly line (current at EUR 6.86) underpinned. The connection potential from the completed turnaround can be estimated at around EUR 4. In the future, double-digit Klöckner quotations will become realistic again. On the way there, the horizontal barriers at EUR 9 mark an important milestone. Close hedging based on the December 2019 high of EUR 6.59 also ensures an attractive risk-reward ratio.

Klöckner & Co (Weekly)

Chart Klöckner & Co

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year chart Klöckner & Co

Chart Klöckner & Co

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

You should know these guard rails

The Nvidia share is still in a stable upward trend. Last but not least, the high relative strength (Levy) of the technology title and a listing within striking distance of the previous all-time high of USD 589 serve as impressive evidence of our initial thesis. Nevertheless, the paper is currently giving itself a respite – in the haze of the 261.8% fibonacci projection of the correction from the last quarter of 2018 (USD 565). What is striking is that the candle from the beginning of September with its wide fluctuation range between USD 468 on the lower and the above. The record level on the top has set the barriers for further price development. The trading range has remained within the stated limits for 14 weeks. In the monthly area, this development is reflected in two “inner bars”. A rise above the previous record level would therefore end the most recent gathering of strength and open up another pro-cyclical connection potential of around USD 120. On the other hand, a “bearish” dissolution of the inner bars (below USD 468) provides an important warning signal, because then one can no longer speak of a constructive consolidation. Thus, this level offers itself as a stop-loss mark.

NVIDIA Corp. (Weekly)

Chart NVIDIA Corp.

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year chart NVIDIA Corp.

Chart NVIDIA Corp.

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

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