Bayer shares: downward trend fully intact – UBS column

Review: Bayer shares have been in an overriding downward trend for years, with a falling trend channel. Upward corrections within this downward trend ran out in previous years largely a little above the 50 EMA in the weekly chart, which is currently at EUR 56.15. The day before the shares closed at EUR 47.44 and thus still have some room for improvement. However, the papers are currently already struggling with the 50 EMA in the daily chart at EUR 47.89, so that the upward movement since the beginning of November could already be nearing its end. If there is no sustainable breakthrough above the 50 EMA in the daily chart, this would be seen as a weak signal.

Outlook: The downtrend is clearly intact for Bayer stocks with a chain of lower highs and lows. In addition, the 50-EMA is trading well below the 200-EMA in the daily and weekly charts, which also indicates the overall weakness of the stocks.

The short scenarios: Bayer shares can no longer sustainably rise above the 50 EMA in the daily chart and turn down again in this area of ​​EUR 48.00. Then an increasing downward momentum could be expected quickly. The next target would then be the support zone around EUR 46.00. If it goes deeper, the bears could take the course to the low of EUR 39.91 at the end of October and then fall below this following the downward trend. In the long term, a return to the lower limit of the falling trend channel in the weekly chart at EUR 20.00 would then be expected.

The long scenarios: Bayer shares can sustainably overcome the 50 EMA in the daily chart and thus send a signal of strength. If a breakthrough above the course high at EUR 49.69 is achieved, a further run-up to EUR 52.85 would be expected, where there is still an open gap.

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