DAX: Downward correction in progress – UBS column

Review: In the past few days, the DAX has ricocheted down again in the massive resistance area with the course high of 13,445 points on November 30th and is currently in a downward correction. The day before, the DAX went out of trading at a discount of 0.45% at 13,252 points. Before the trading session, the leading index was again lower on Friday morning at 13,215 points. It should be noted that the DAX has repeatedly failed in the large picture since 2017 because of the resistance area at 13,300 points. After the strong previous run-up since the beginning of November, a direct breakthrough to the top is rather unlikely. In addition, the DAX has a number of open gaps on the underside that should be closed again in the medium to long term.

Outlook: As in previous years, the DAX threatens to rebound completely in the resistance area from 13,300 points. And as in previous years, there could then be another lengthy downward trend.

The short scenarios: The DAX is expanding its downward trend and is heading for support at the round mark of 13,000 points. If it goes deeper, the bears could approach the lower limit of the rising trend channel at 12,900 points. Below this, a price decline to the first open gap on the bottom at 12,600 points would be expected. The 200 EMA, which could put a stop to the bears, is only slightly lower at 12,520 points. In the long term, however, there could be a renewed decline in price to the lower Fibonacci fan in the monthly chart at 11,400 points.

The long scenarios: The DAX can rise again over 13,400 points. Then the last open gap on the upper side at 13,500 points could again be targeted by the cops. Over 13,500 points, the DAX could then set course for the all-time high of 13,795 points.


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