DAX® – Will the DAX® run out of steam for a short time? – columns

December 4th, 2020

from Jörg Scherer, Technical Analyst HSBC

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HSBC Daily Trading

Does the DAX® run out of air for a short time?

In contrast to the S&P 500®, which again reached new heights with 3,683 points, the DAX® had to give up some ground yesterday. The German standard values ​​continue to pay tribute to the resistance zone from the most recent high (13,445 points) and the high from September (13,460 points). Therefore, investors should keep an eye on the lows at around 13,230 points. Since the last few days were characterized by relatively little fluctuation intensity, a slide below this level could put the DAX® under greater pressure. This is especially true because if the course is negative, the above-mentioned failure will occur. Resistance zone at a good 13,400 points must be assumed. Short-term consolidation targets then define the most recent lows at 13,035 / 13,005 points. Such breathing is currently favored by the somewhat careless, euphoric sentiment (see “HSBC Daily Trading” of December 3) and by the “seasonality” factor. Especially in the 2nd week of December there is often a temporary dent in the course of the year-end rally.

DAX® (Daily)

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year DAX® chart

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

200-day line as a stepping stone?

The price gains of 2020 have been consolidated by the gold price since its record high in early August at USD 2,072 in the form of a classic correction flag. Most recently, there was an almost precise pullback to the April high (USD 1,765) and a perfect exploration of the lower flag boundary (see chart). A constructive candlestick pattern created on this basis feeds hope that the correction impulse described will end. An important argument in this context is the recapture of the 200-day line (currently at USD 1,804). The “seasonality” factor is currently in the same direction, because in the middle of December a year-end rally also sets in for the gold price – with the difference that the start of the year for precious metals is also positive. Based on the data since the beginning of the millennium, the gold price can rise by an average of 6% from mid-December to the end of February. In terms of the chart, a “bullish” dissolution of the flag described (upper limit currently at USD 1,936) would amount to a major blow. The bastion at USD 1,802 / 1,765 is predestined as a stop loss. You can read more about the gold price in mid-December in the large “HSBC Technical Outlook”.

Gold (daily)

Chart gold

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

5-year gold chart

Chart gold

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²

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