Forecasting stock price developments are basically silly. At the end of 2019, the analysts of major banks agreed that 2020 would be a generally relaxed and good year for stocks. By March there was the biggest slump in 50 years. A target of 20,000 points in the Dax, however, is not the spinning of the author of this column, but pure mathematics.
Shares are gaining an average of seven percent a year, and investment bank JP Morgan believes it could be a little less over the next few years. Assuming five percent, then it takes a good eight years in the Dax to reach the 20,000 mark. It would be that time in 2028 at the latest.
Curiously enough, another statistic fits in with this. Because the world’s largest stock exchanges are up 135 percent on average after slumps such as in March 2020. With 8,000 meters this would correspond to around 19,000 meters. So be it – such number games are a bit of fun. But it is more important to invest wisely and countercyclically against the pack and to build up your wealth.
You have to look at what phase the market is in. Speech images are helpful on the stock market to simply explain the seemingly irrational behavior of market participants. For example, old stock exchange master André Kostolany compared the relationship between the economy and the stock market with a man who goes for a walk with his dog. At times the dog (the share price) goes after its master (the fair value of the company), at other times it runs ahead.
In the end, however, it is only a matter of time before the dog returns to its owner. The comparison is currently very accurate: While the number of corona cases is increasing in the important industrial nations and many companies are suffering, important indices are already at record levels or just below. The dog thus runs far in front of its master.
Much positive priced in
The market is currently looking through the expected dip in growth and is already pricing in a broad economic recovery and rising profits in the coming year. Good news on the vaccine front, a market-friendly outcome in the US election and the central banks ready and other government bailouts create a perfect environment. For the USA, for example, the analysts from the ETF provider Lyxor are assuming an economic stimulus package from the new US government under Joe Biden amounting to 1.5 billion dollars.
However, there is a catch: positive scenarios have been priced in, stocks are currently expensive. Investor sentiment is at its best in the last 20 years. A cash quota of at least 20 percent is therefore advisable. Anti-cyclics are literally woken up. Therefore, put warrants are currently suitable for temporary hedging, as they are now cheap and win when the stock markets rush south. The put with the WKN KA4H1M (Citi) is suitable for short-term security in the depot.
Discount puts can also be intelligent in the current phase. The HZ2TD7 paper yields a sideways return of 30 percent if the DAX is the only condition below the 14,000 point mark in March 2021. As tactical additions, discount puts are professional tools and, in the case of the paper mentioned, can even be traded free of charge via the Cashbuzz app or the Gettex stock exchange. This way, investors can still save a little when buying and, as is well known, the merchant’s profit lies in buying – with the DAX as with warrants.
Daniel Saurenz runs the stock exchange portal Feingold Research with his team. It offers a daily market letter that you can test free of charge for 14 days. Sign in at Info@feingold-research.com or try the stock exchange service under this link out. Training days and coachings can be found NEW under feingold-academy.com