Traditionally more defensive than construction activities, the concessions division (motorways and airports) suffers from travel and traffic restrictions. Before regaining visibility with the imminent arrival of vaccines. Stability makes it possible to bet on this very good record with the hope of 36% capital gain in just 1 and a half months.
Our latest derivatives strategy on Vinci has proven to be quite successful. The stability (code: LU2088536433) issued with 63 and 96 euros terminals, which had been recommended at 7.79 euros on this site on September 9, was reimbursed on the November 20 deadline by Société Générale at 10 euros. The gain stands at 28.4% in two months. We choose to renew the operation considering that the potential of the Vinci share should remain limited in the very short term, after a rebound of 30% over one month. At 40.2 and 18.5 times the estimated profits for this year and 2021, the title seems well valued in the immediate future while waiting for the imminent arrival of vaccines to restore visibility to the pole of motorway and airport concessions penalized by the border closures and movement restrictions reinstated in France with the reconfinement. The group has made no secret of this and has revised down its highway traffic forecast for this year to between -20% and -25%. However and as the deconfinement at the beginning of the summer showed, the highways very quickly return to a level of traffic close to that before the crisis, so that there is no need to worry about the group. Simply, we must be patient and wait for the mass vaccination to allow a return to normal life.
The Vinci share must evolve between 55 and 95 euros
Reason why a stability offers a good compromise to bet on the file. Still issued by Societe Generale with a deadline of January 15, 2021 and two limits located at 55 euros for the lowest and 95 euros for the highest, the stability will be reimbursed 10 euros at maturity provided that the Vinci share continues to ‘here to evolve within the zone of fluctuations defined by the two limits. Considering a purchase price of 7.36 euros, it offers a potential gain of 35.9% in a month and a half. Attention to the risk profile far from being negligible since in the event of exit from the action by the top or the bottom of the corridor framed by the two terminals (55/95 euros), the stability immediately loses all of its value.
Our advice: buy a Vinci stability (code: LU2088615146); deadline: January 15, 2021; terminals: 55/95 euros: price: 7.36 euros; portion: 1.