A very quiet week before the 1st Advent almost marks the end of the year. But there are still a few trading days to complete before then. It went gently up towards the all-time high.
Looking at the range edge of the last few weeks, the DAX will start to limit on the upside directly on Monday. It was exceeded briefly, but more profit-taking followed. However, these were made up for on Tuesday and then settled on Wednesday, one day before the US holiday of Thanksgiving.
The holiday itself was a kind of “sleeping pill” for the other markets. In the DAX it was only enough for a daily range of 41 points. The last trading day of the week, which was a kind of bridging day for many market participants, was also characterized by little movement.
Nevertheless, the chosen trend continued within the range up to a (so far only gentle) breakout on the upside, as already outlined in the daily outlook on Thursday (review):
New weekly and monthly highs were the result of this otherwise quiet week.
The economic data did little to change this either. The US labor market continues to recover slowly and the rapid increase in US GDP is deceptive, because at second glance it only made up for the historic slump in spring and is still not complete. A further aid package is therefore probably necessary in the USA, even if the stock markets have already made further increases and are thus decoupling from economic development. The Dow Jones set an exclamation mark on Tuesday with the first closing price of over 30,000 meters.
In terms of economic data from Germany, Gfk consumer confidence should be mentioned, which has now declined again in the current lockdown and is therefore at the July level.
Between these two impulses – hope for further rescue packages and a slow economic recovery – one should assess the current low volatility. It becomes clear again when looking at the individual trading days and the weekly development:
What can be deduced from this for the new trading week?
A new month is always associated with new capital inflows, so that prices also seem well supported at the start of December. In addition, according to current statistics (there is still one trading day), November is the strongest month in more than a year. This gives momentum to the run-up to Christmas.
In terms of chart technology, the range shown in the first chart image is optically left. This tendency is based on a trend that has lasted for several days:
Above all, there is a lot of resistance to be found that could hold or slow the DAX up to its all-time high:
The September high at 13,460.46 points should be mentioned here, for example. Maybe the next destination?
In trading, I will use the trend line that led out of the range as a trigger for the start of the new week. If the market breaks this line and we slide into the range again, or below 13,270 (double low on Thursday and Friday), a consolidation is likely.
The evaluation of the dealers for Black Friday should be exciting in the new week his. A lot of special offers could have aroused the consumer mood and thus move the big retailers and also the mail order companies Amazon or Deutsche Post into the focus of investors. After all, Deutsche Post had already exceeded the delivery volume for 2019 as a whole in the previous week.
If sales rise sharply here, this has a direct implication on the stock market via the corresponding stock values. We will certainly be able to report more on this from Tuesday.
The following other dates are due in the new week.
On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak and at 2 p.m. the focus will be on consumer prices from Germany.
Tuesday brings the EU consumer prices into focus at 11.00 a.m. and the ISM manufacturing index from the US in the afternoon at 4.00 p.m. In the late afternoon a speech by Ms. Lagarde and also by FED chief Jerome Powell enrich the trading day.
For Wednesday morning, take a closer look at retail sales after Black Friday and reserve 2:15 p.m. attention for the ADP employment change in the US.
With retail sales in the euro zone on Thursday, US initial jobless claims and the ISM non-manufacturing index at 4:00 p.m., additional data are available to assess economic developments.
Friday will then be dominated by the US labor market report. 2.30 p.m. it is published and also contains the number of employees outside the agricultural
You can find all forecasts for this data in the following overview:
I wish us every success in today’s retail. Your Andreas Bernstein (Bernecker1977)
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