With the prospect of the second lockdown being lifted on December 15 and the arrival of vaccines, this construction and concession group should regain visibility. Still discounted, the title can be played by means of a turbo call.
The Eiffage share has already been recommended on this site for “stock market derivatives advice” on September 18 by means of a capped bonus (code: FRSGE001AQV3) issued by Société Générale with limits of 60/95 euros. Advised at a price of 82.15 euros, it is now worth 89.18 euros and should, barring unlikely surprises, be repaid on the due June 25, 2021 at its bonus level of 95 euros. Since September 18, Eiffage has again been penalized by the re-containment decreed in November and until December 15. Fortunately, less severe than in the spring, the restrictive measures did not prevent the sites from functioning. But on the other hand, travel bans have once again brought down traffic to motorway concessions for light vehicles at a time (that of November) which is not strategic. However, investors know: the 2020 financial year will be very bad with, according to the consensus gathered by Factset, a 40% contraction of operating profit to 1.2 billion for a turnover down 10% to 16, $ 27 billion and a halving of net profit to $ 357 million. The deconfinement from December 15 and especially the arrival of vaccines will restore visibility to the group on its motorway concessions. Remember that in light of the first deconfinement, the return to pre-crisis trafficking is almost immediate. In the construction industry, the 13% increase in the order book to 16.9 billion at the end of September gives prospects with nearly a year of sales. 2021 should therefore be a renewal for Eiffage with an expected rebound of 54% of operating income to 1.88 billion from a business volume up by just over 8% and an expected doubling of net profit at 713 million. The icing on the cake: the group promised in spring 2021 a catch-up on the dividend.
the call deactivated in the event of a relapse of the action below 60 euros
At 11.8 and 10.3 times the estimated profits for 2021 and 2022, the Eiffage share is not expensive compared to an average ratio of 13.8 times observed over a long period (2008-2019). A turbo call will allow our most offensive subscribers to leverage the pursuit of value catching up. The certificate is issued by BNP-Paribas without expiry with a safety threshold of 59.88 euros below which the share must not flow back. Otherwise, the certificate will be immediately deactivated and will lose almost all of its value. The large gap between this safety threshold and the share price limits the risk and provides the time necessary to unwind the position in the event of an unfavorable change in the security. Meanwhile, the call has an attractive leverage of 3.25 times. Thus, in the hypothesis of a further rise in the share, for example 90 euros, the call will gain 23.8%. But be careful, because conversely, if the title ebbs back to 77 euros, the turbo will lose 26.1% of its value.
Our advice: buy Eiffage turbo call issued by BNP-Paribas (code: FRBNPP01J6Y8); term: unlimited; security threshold: 59.88 euros; level of funding: 58.1305 euros; parity: 20 turbos for 1 share; price: 1.3 euro; amount: 1