The conversation led by retail expert Rupert Parker Brady and entrepreneur Markus Konings from Sandenburg concept creation will be streamed live by MarketingTribune.nl via the window below and made possible in part by AVEX.
* As founder of The Food Research Company, Inga Blokker is responsible for all research that Foodservice Institute Netherlands (FSIN) publishes about trends, consumers and market developments in the food market.
* Foodservice professor Paul van Oers has ten years of experience with the innovative Foodservice minor associated with the Hotel Management School Maastricht, part of Zuyd University of Applied Sciences. He supervises talented third and fourth year HBO students in the Foodservice minor, which he set up and designed himself.
* Walter Seib is chairman of FSIN. In daily life, he has been CEO of HMSHost International for years, which, in addition to Schiphol, also operates well-known formulas at train stations and shopping centers in the Netherlands. The global market leader in airport catering initially saw turnover drop to just 1.5 percent due to the stagnation of aviation. Last year, HMSHost had a turnover of 600 million euros, with more than two thousand employees in the Netherlands. Ultimately, HMSHost had to let 1,400 people go in the Netherlands alone in 2020. In all nineteen countries together, the operator had to say goodbye to 6,500 people. Until corona, sales grew by 20 to 25 percent per year.
The corona crisis is causing extreme differences within the food market. This is evident from the market forecast for 2020 and 2021 that the authoritative Foodservice Institute Netherlands (FSIN) collected from dozens of companies, sector organizations and experts. Foodservice is losing a lot of market share to food retail, and within Foodservice sectors such as catering, corporate hotel industry and night restaurants are suffering enormous damage. At the same time, meal and grocery deliveries are growing explosively, and supermarkets and specialty stores are benefiting.
The three out-of-home channels (Horeca, Catering and Convenience) are now expected to decline by no less than 55% in 2020, bringing in no less than € 8.8 billion compared to the record year 2019 in relation to the sale of food, beverages and tobacco. . The three At home channels (Supermarket, Specialty Store and New Retail), on the other hand, will win € 4.2 billion this year (also purely in food, the non-food turnover of the supermarkets is not included). After years of decline, the specialist retailer suddenly gains a turnover of € 310 million.
Consumers spend less on food this year. The FSIN expects a minus of 7.6%. That means that € 4.5 billion less is spent. Not because consumers suddenly eat and drink less, but because they buy their calories in cheaper places. The FSIN points to 12 major consequences. The effects of the crisis in the economy will only become clearly visible in 2021. And the Horeca channel’s earnings model has changed disastrous due to the crisis.
1. The number of bankruptcies and redundancies in the catering industry is still not too bad thanks to government regulations. But from Q4 2020, thousands of bankruptcies and many tens of thousands of layoffs are expected.
2. In 2021, due to the emerging economic crisis, we will see a further downtrading among consumers. More emphasis on economising and taking advantage.
3. Partly because of this, the number of formula restaurants will actually grow, at the expense of mom-and-dad restaurants with solitary establishments.
4. It will certainly take until 2023 before the turnover in Horeca is back to the turnover level of 2019. The second lockdown of October 14 will put Horeca and Catering in particular at a disadvantage, mainly because of the damage to financial buffers and making investments impossible.
5. The market for traditional contract catering is going to take a fundamental blow. It is no longer interesting (and useful) for clients and for caterers to provide the (more limited) employees with subsidized lunches.
6. Lunch deliverers and convenience stores are filling the gap that caterers have to leave behind at these locations. But in turn, caterers will enter the commercial field with catering formulas, also in the street scene.
7. Supermarkets will not easily give up their gained sales plus and will add more and more catering elements to their formulas.
8. There are more convenience stores because consumers are increasingly looking for convenience. By the way, convenience stores also have a very difficult time in corona time because they are often located at locations where ‘normally’ many passers-by come.
9. Because of this convenience-seeking consumer, the delivery of both meals and groceries will also continue to grow strongly.
10. It is mainly young people (Millennials and Gen-Z) who boost convenience consumption and allow themselves to be unburdened with apps.
11. Those same generations also provide a boost in vegetarian and vegan concepts and products.
12. Young people (especially families) discovered the specialty store in corona time. And if those specialists insist even more on quality and distinction of the supermarket, they can retain these new customers.
Enough reasons for Sandenburg to dedicate a broadcast to the dynamic developments in the Dutch food market, with the key question: ‘will the food service survive 2021?’
(PvWK / RPB)
Will the food service sector reach 2021?
Thursday December 3, 2020
Time: 9:00 am – 10:00 am
Live stream from Sandenburg in Amsterdam: via the window below