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EUR / USD: trend channel confirmed – UBS column

Review: The EUR / USD currency pair broke out of the long-term downward trend at the end of May. The big signal for this was delivered when the important 200 EMA was exceeded in the daily chart. In the previous months the currency pair had repeatedly bounced off the 200 EMA and had continued the overarching downtrend. This also underscores the importance of the 200 EMA. With the breakthrough to the top, a long upward rally followed up to the previous high of USD 1,201. Downward corrections within this upward rally largely ended slightly below the 10-EMA. Since the beginning of August, EUR / USD has been in an extended sideways phase at a high level and has formed two slightly rising trend channels. These have so far been largely confirmed by the currency pair.

Outlook: So far, the upward trend in EUR / USD is still intact and the currency pair is moving upwards at a high level. In the previous days, EUR / USD rebounded from the lower limit of the trend channel and is currently trading in the USD 1,182 area.

The short scenarios: The currency pair has currently developed a bearish candle in the area of ​​USD 1,182 and could face a new decline with the course high of USD 1,185. The first starting point would then be the area around the 50 and 10 EMA at around USD 1,175. These two EMAs provide solid support. If it goes lower, the lower limit of the rising trend channel could be started again at around USD 1,164.

The long scenarios: EUR / USD can stay broadly in the USD 1,182 area and continue its upward movement. The next starting point would be the area of ​​the upper limit of the rising trend channel at USD 1,190 dollars. However, an upward break out of the trend channel is not to be expected.

Disclaimer: The text is a column of the UBS. 4investors is not responsible for the content of the column and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!

At a glance – chart and news: dollar currency

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