Regardless of all the “breaking news” about the still open outcome of the presidential election and the partially unworthy US mud battle over the White House, new data on the labor market for October have just been reported. From the land of the now really unlimited possibilities there is more to report than just furious officials who call election counts illegal. Nevertheless, the employment data are likely to be drowned out in the hustle and bustle – the importance is also less!
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 638,000 new jobs were created in October, which is in line with expectations. The two previous months were also revised by a total of 15,000. In the course of the referendum that has ended, there were significant job cuts among public employees. For this reason, the private sector even created 906,000 new jobs, which makes the headline number appear in an even friendlier light. After the largest job cut in history by 20 million people in April, there is now a strong – but declining – increase in employment for the sixth month in a row. The job growth from May to October now makes up for a little more than half of the slump!
The decline in the unemployment rate, which has now fallen to 6.9% for the sixth month in a row, is to be assessed even more favorably. The highest value since the Second World War of 14.7% in April was therefore followed by clear improvements. Nobody expected such a low value of less than 7% in early summer! In addition: The decline in the quota came about despite an increase in the Labor Force. These are very legal, great numbers!
The average weekly hours stagnated, wages rose by 0.1% m / m.
Basically, the tendencies of the last few months remain: The job creation is continuing, the employment dynamic is only slowly but gradually declining. What is remarkable, however, is the decline in the rate to below 7% – fortunately faster than many expected.
The rapid increase in the number of infections in the USA from June and now again from October should slow down the recovery somewhat. In the meantime, the USA is already in a third wave of infections. However, the economic catch-up process has not yet been stopped because the interference in economic activity in the USA is still less than in Europe, for example. At least the job market continues to be robust.
The USA had in III. Quarter with + 33% Q / Q (ann.) Showed a historic record for GDP growth – the flight altitude in the fourth quarter will of course be much lower. We are currently assuming 4% Q / Q (ann.). The extent to which even stronger turbulence around the White House is to be included as a disruptive factor can only be seen from the current perspective.
Conclusion: Regardless of all the “breaking news” on the still open outcome of the presidential election and the partially unworthy US mud battle over the White House, new data on the labor market for October have just been reported. From the land of the now really unlimited possibilities there is also something else to report than just about officials who call electoral counts illegal. In October, 638,000 new jobs were created – quite legally – which is in line with expectations. The decline in the unemployment rate to 6.9% is definitely a blast! The trends of the last few months remain. The rapid increase in the number of infections in the USA from June and now again from October should, however, slow down the recovery somewhat. The brilliant GDP growth in the III. Quarter is likely to be followed by a much lower one in the fourth quarter. The extent to which stronger turbulence around the White House should be included as a disruptive factor can currently only be awaited.
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