Investing

Interview “Trump already has the stab in the back legend ready”

The eyes of stock traders are currently on the outcome of the US electiondpa

Hendrik Leber, Managing Director of the fund company Acatis, did not get up earlier on today’s US election day in the hope of a decision. He said in an interview with Personal-Financial.com that he has no influence on the result anyway. But he could have imagined something more beautiful than waiting now. The likelihood of violent riots in the USA has increased as a result. What that means for the stock market.


Mr Leber, it is currently not clear which of the two presidential candidates Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win the race. If Biden wins narrowly, it can be assumed that Trump will challenge the election. What do you think of this scenario and what effects do you expect on the markets?

It is the worst case, so the worst. The faster it becomes clear, the better it is for investors. From the point of view of the markets, a Trump election victory would be a guarantee for at least a short-term positive mood. Everyone would say that it’s good because he’s business-friendly, even if that’s not true …

… why is that not true?

He always poses as the great dealmaker. But apart from a follow-up agreement to the “NAFTA” with Canada and Mexico, he did not deliver anything. The deficits with other countries, including in trade with China, are at a record high. He had promised to dismantle it. A free market economy also means that new companies can enter the market and innovations are protected. Trump doesn’t do that either.

What consequences do you expect if the democratic candidate Biden wins a narrow election?

Trump already has a stab in the back legend with his allegations of electoral fraud. If the election is decided in a court, it could lead to civil war-like conditions in the time before. What I have observed in Trump’s administration in recent years resembles mafia-like structures. It’s not about loyalty to democracy and its institutions, but loyalty to the boss. If you are not, your head rolls. Trump mobilizes his supporters in a way we know them from the Nazis in Germany from the Weimar Republic. Or what do you think of when Trump supporters demonstratively display weapons, kidnap governors and use violence to prevent Democrats from campaigning? That’s intimidating. During a lawsuit, Trump’s mobilization is likely to increase the aggression that is openly expressed on the streets. And of course it also leads to uncertainty in the markets. The next two to three months could be tough for investors. We at Acatis have built in some fuses. Over the next twelve months, however, I have a positive view of the US stock market.

Would riots and ongoing uncertainties fuel the bond market and gold price?

I expect the price of gold to go up very significantly if there is unrest.

How is the economy fueled?

Biden with stimulus programs and Trump with gifts of money. They are equally fatal.

Why are they preventing a rapid slump in the domestic economy?

But it is not anchored in people’s minds that this will at some point be deducted from their wealth. For example, in the form of higher taxes, because the debts incurred for the monetary gifts have to be paid. Or in the form of inflation.

How could the polls miss the fact that Trump is so close to Biden?

I would have expected that they would have learned from the mega forecast bankruptcy four years ago. But that is obviously not the case. In the United States, there is a rift running through societies with a rural central section sandwiched between the urban west and east coasts. Their opinion is not included in the surveys. Traditional worldviews of good and bad often prevail there. But what doesn’t get into my head: How can a woman vote for a sexist grabber like Trump? How can an evangelical choose an adulterer like Trump who cannot quote a sentence from the Bible? This is schizophrenic.

And why do the Democrats fail in terms of content to assert themselves against a Trump candidate?

Biden wasn’t a convincing candidate. He doesn’t stand for anything and is too old. But there was no alternative that could have reached a consensus with the Democrats either. In terms of content, the Democrats are fragmented, there is no leitmotif. Democracy and Western values ​​hardly work; the US population is too domestically oriented for that. We in Europe see the USA as the leading nation for the world, while many US Americans do not know the difference between “Sweden” and “Switzerland”. The withdrawal of the USA from world politics creates a vacuum.

Who will fill it?

Ultimately, only the Chinese have the will and sufficient economic strength to do so.

So should investors increasingly look to Asian stocks and turn away from US stocks, or is that just not related?

The shift in the world capital markets from the USA to China is in full swing. Most of the future champions come from there.


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