Review: The DAX is in a clear downward trend in the daily chart, but is currently in an upward correction. This upward correction could initially start in the lower area of the falling trend channel at around 11,970 points. If the DAX can continue to rise, the gap that is still open at 12,034 points would be the next target. At this point at the latest, however, the DAX should turn down again and shift into reverse gear again. As long as the DAX is listed below its 200 EMA at 12,380 points in the daily chart, prices are likely to continue falling. Prices below the 200 EMA indicate that prices will continue to decline over the long term. In the monthly chart, the long black previous month’s candle also warns of further price weakness.
Outlook: The DAX has broken out of the long sideways movement since the beginning of June and is likely to continue its overall weakness.
The short scenarios: The DAX pulls back to the lower limit of the falling trend channel and turns down again from here. If the bears then succeed in breaking through among the important Fibonacci fans in the monthly chart at 11,450 points for October, the situation for the DAX would deteriorate significantly. Then a breakthrough below the Ichimoku cloud could also take place, with which a long-term price decline could be expected. In this case, a retest of the corona crash low at 8,255 points would have to be taken into account.
The long scenarios: The DAX can close the open gap at 12,034 points and then pull it up further and recapture the falling trend channel. If things then continue to rise, the bulls should set course for the 200 EMA in the daily chart. Only then would the situation for the DAX brighten again in the long term.
Disclaimer: The text is a column of the UBS. 4investors is not responsible for the content of the column and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!