Donald Trump apparently won his duel with Joe Biden. The shock waves are slowly starting to spread across the markets. As expected, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a slight decline but for the time being remains above the $ 13,000 mark. We will see more of a stir as Wall Street opens this afternoon.
Trump announces his victory
The US president held a short press conference late at night to present figures he said pointing to his re-election. So, as anticipated, the tenant of the White House declared his victory before the end of the count. Indeed, tens of millions of Americans have voted by mail and it will take time to open all the envelopes and do the counting accurately.
Donald Trump’s strategy is to denounce fraud if the counting of those mail-in votes gives Biden victory. Unless the Republicans display a mathematically compelling lead, it is almost certain that this democratic crisis will be resolved in the Supreme Court.
Markets give Trump the winner
The American election is a big money story. It is therefore the financial analysts who will know before anyone else who will soon be in the Oval Office. As such, we see that the yuan is falling sharply against the dollar. Which suggests that the markets are betting on Republicans and therefore a continuation of the trade war between Uncle Sam and the Middle Kingdom.
Same story on the side of futures backed by the US stock market which point to a decline of values invested in renewables at the time of this writing. Futures across all stock market indices are on the rise. These are new clues suggesting that Donald Trump is likely to win, one way or another … Indeed, tackling climate change is not really the priority of the Trump administration which will continue to support it. carbon industry essential to generate growth. Physics being what it is, the energy / growth decoupling is a pipe dream. Creating jobs and growing GDP takes energy. Point bar.
Donald Trump cannot be accused of not being in line with his campaign promises, namely to create jobs. However, for this to happen, energy must be consumed, because reducing your CO2 emissions inevitably means decreasing …
BTC / USD
The dollar therefore appreciates against the Chinese yuan but remains relatively stable against the single currency for the time being. EUR / USD depreciated sharply around midnight but rose again this morning as Donald Trump caught up.
The high ambient volatility is normal but the pair is broadly at the same level as at the end of October. The courts will remain nervous, especially if neither faction concedes defeat. Bitcoin price is probably waiting to see what EUR / USD will do to take a sharper direction.
The BTC / USD pair is undecided at the moment. A victory for Biden would likely break down the resistance of the $ 14,000, but the point is, this election is much closer than the polls were saying …
At the time, S&P 500-backed Futures disliked Donald Trump’s suggestion he will go to the Supreme Court if he has to. But for now, Futures point to an upward opening on Wall Street.
Expect a hike above $ 14,000 if Biden’s victory becomes clearer. But watch the US 10-year rate closely. A decline in the latter would mean that investors are taking refuge in US debt (and therefore in the dollar) in anticipation of a democratic crisis. A sharp rise in the greenback could weigh on Bitcoin.
- BTC / USD weekly chart (one candle = one week)