Economy & Politics explains US election: Trump’s poll losses and Biden’s chances

When it comes to bookmakers, Joe Biden has the edgeimago images / Hans Lucas

In 2016, Trump was ahead of Hillary Clinton in the senior electorate. However, he is currently behind Biden. Where did the poll losses for this group come from?

In general, the Republican presidential candidates have come out on top among the older population in recent years. It just continued in 2016: Hillary Clinton had great problems gaining sympathy among this population group. Trump benefited from this. That is changing at the moment. It is one of the demographics that has seen the strongest turn towards Biden. One reason is likely to be how the pandemic is being handled. Trump is accused of mismanagement. According to official information, there are now around 230,000 corona deaths in the USA. Older voters take the pandemic as part of the risk group much more seriously than younger voters. Biden is trusted to deal better with the Corona crisis. You can see that in the polls. Another aspect is that Biden meets with sympathy in this group of voters, more than was the case with Clinton. For older Americans in particular, he is a figure to identify with – he does not have the aggressiveness of Trump, he is more of the “buddy” type.

Even among white women – the Suburban Housewives – Trump is losing in polls …

That is perhaps the even greater turnaround. You can generally see that Biden has a huge lead overall with women. This is also the case with the white women, who voted for Trump in 2016 by a majority. Various factors play a role here, for example Trump’s misogynistic statements. This means that many women no longer approve of him, but he has not tried to change this in the past four years. The corona pandemic is certainly also significant. Women are more concerned with health issues than men. Above all, however, dealing with migrants on the border with Mexico, where children were separated from their parents, played an enormous role. That caused great horror among the Suburban Housewives. Result: If only women were to vote, the choice would already be made in favor of Biden.

Trumps serves its core electorate

Could Trump have saved the polls?

Probably yes, but that contradicts his nature. Trump has served his tough electorate in the past four years. These are rather poorly educated, male whites. For this he worked with his statements and political decisions. He made no effort to gain votes beyond this group of voters. He could have disarmed his rhetoric and made less racist and sexist statements. Basically, he would have had to suppress his core personality in order to approach other voters. He hasn’t done that in the last four years, and therefore not in his election campaign. There were two television debates with Joe Biden – in the first he presented himself as macho, interrupted, scolded, insulted his competitor. That was extremely bad. From this he learned to shut it down a bit for the second debate. That was the greatest compromise on his part. But his political instinct is always to serve his core voter group.

This year, many Americans already voted in early voting, either directly at the polling station or by postal vote. Does that speak for a higher turnout and more interest in political events?

There are several reasons for this. Early voting has been increasing for years. It is also encouraged to avoid long lines on election day. This trend is clearly visible and therefore nothing new. Adding to this, of course, the pandemic made people in the United States worried about going to a crowded polling station. That’s why the early voting got an incredible boost. Well over half of the total votes cast four years ago have already been received by early voting this year. In Texas, it’s even approaching 100 percent. Trump is mobilizing voters in his own way on both sides of the political spectrum. On the one hand, its core electorate, who should also vote as a group. On the other hand, by polarizing so strongly, it also serves the other side: especially blacks, Latinos and young voters.

Is there a tendency for the result among the early voters?

One thing is clear: in early voting there is a clear lead for the democratic side. This is probably due to the fact that Trump declared the postal vote to be unsafe, but without any evidence. As a result, voters registered as Democrats with the early votes are about 15 to 20 percentage points ahead. This can be seen from the polls, because the results of the early voting will not be published before the election. Trump and the Republicans assume, however, that there will be a so-called “red wave” on election day. Many Republican voters will go to polling stations in person to vote on election day. So they could catch up with the lead through postal votes and personal early voters. To what extent that will happen is one of the big questions of this election.
Infographic: Number of early voters in the US doubles | Statista You can find more infographics at Statista

Good chances for Biden

Which states might decide the choice?

Assuming Joe Biden wins every state that Hillary Clinton won, plus the three Midwestern states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – he won the election. He is currently ahead in all three countries. Now the arithmetic begins. If he doesn’t win one of these states, he has to win another. There are definitely opportunities for this. In the US southwest, too, things are looking good for Biden in the polls, for example Arizona, where Trump won four years ago. Biden is very strong in Georgia, where he should get the vote from black voters in particular. He also has a good chance of winning Florida – in which case the election would already be decided, as Florida has a relatively large number of electors. Even Texas could win Biden. That would be a political sensation, however, since Texas has always voted Republican since 1976. But there is also a head-to-head race between the two presidential candidates. Overall, Biden’s chances of winning the election are significantly broader than Trump’s. Trump has a very narrow path, but he has one.

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