D.he lockdowns in many European countries have gotten into the ranks of stockbrokers. It’s no wonder that some are now scared. After this Halloween weekend, many will retire to the home office – after all, everyone should reduce their contacts by 75 percent. This goal of the federal government, which is surprisingly strict for many investors, will not only split opinions in the coming months, but above all will hamper economic development. The Dax has already reacted strongly to this this week.
From 12400 points, the Dax went down rapidly to 11463 points on Wednesday. The share index never fell below this low on Thursday or Friday. The Dax ended the week on Friday with 11,556 points, which means a weekly discount of 8.6 percent. That alone makes investors shudder.
But whether the Wednesday low will hold the Dax in the coming week is questionable. The reporting season will then pick up speed. Six out of thirty DAX companies present their quarterly reports: Bayer on Tuesday, Wednesday then BMW, on Thursday Heidelberg-Cement, Linde and Munich Re and on Friday Allianz. Even if business picked up in the third quarter, the spirit of the renewed lockdown is likely to overshadow much. The start of the reporting season went wrong: the software manufacturer SAP warned that it would miss its medium-term profit targets. The SAP share experienced the lowest price fall since 1999 with 22 percent on Monday and has so far not recovered. SAP is this week’s biggest loser among the 100 stocks in the F.A.Z.index. With minus 31 percent, SAP performed worse than any other important German share in the whole of October.
In 2020, October will live up to its reputation as a bad month on the stock market. To the shock of many investors, the Dax has lost 9.4 percent since the beginning of the month. But there are also winners: This week, with the restaurants also closed in Germany from Monday, unsurprisingly the food supplier Delivery Hero.
And viewed over the whole month – no spook – the Deutsche Bank is surprisingly the best Dax share with plus 10 percent. Deutsche Bank continued to make profits in the third quarter and will likely end above breakeven in 2020 for the first time in six years. This is not the only encouragement in the dark times. The European Central Bank will probably expand its bond purchases from December onwards, weakening the euro, which has already been weak this week, and thus opening up opportunities for the export industry. When it looks really dark and creepy, at least on the stock exchange, the lights often come on again faster than expected.