HelloFresh after the price jump: Skeptical stock experts

In a first comment on HelloFresh’s new forecast, DZ Bank analysts raised their target price for the company’s share price. However, despite the price target increase from 36 euros to 40 euros, the sell recommendation for the HelloFresh share remains. This closed XETRA trading on Friday at EUR 54.55 with a 6.86 percent daily increase. HelloFresh is currently gaining momentum due to the corona pandemic. In the long run, however, investors may have concerns about the cost of new customer acquisition.

JP Morgan confirms the rating of HelloFresh as “neutral”, although the price target of 37 euros – which has also not changed – is well below the current price level of the security. According to the experts, the company has presented impressive figures due to the dynamics in connection with the consequences of the pandemic, but it will be important how the development from the first quarter of 2021 will be.

According to preliminary figures published yesterday, HelloFresh closed the third quarter of 2020 with an increase in sales from 441 million euros to a total of between 968 million euros and 971 million euros. “This clearly exceeds the current market expectation, which, according to the company’s calculations, amounts to EUR 836 million (arithmetic mean of the analyst estimates published by October 16, 2020),” said HelloFresh on Friday afternoon. The adjusted EBITDA is said to have multiplied from 15.5 million euros to 112 million euros to 117 million euros – the consensus on the stock exchange was 73 million euros, well below the value now achieved.

As a result of the better-than-expected development, HelloFresh is increasing its own forecast for the current year: The Berlin-based company wants to close 2020 with a sales increase of between 95 percent and 105 percent – previously 75 percent to 95 percent had been forecast. The adjusted EBITDA margin should reach a value between 11.25 percent and 12.75 percent. In the previous forecast, HelloFresh assumed 9 percent to 11 percent. Both forecast values ​​are above the previous analyst estimates.

HelloFresh will publish the nine-month report 2020 on November 3, 2020.

At a glance – chart and news: HelloFresh


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