DAX: “Hammer formation” and chance for year-end rally passed on – Donner & Reuschel column

The DAX 30 fell significantly yesterday. In the end, there was a daily minus of around 2.5 percent. However, it then closed just under 100 points above its daily low. That was 12,600 meters yesterday. This “hammer formation” gives hope for a positive development today. With this, the neckline of the shoulder-head-shoulder formation held for the repeated time. From a chart and market perspective, the chances are still good that the German benchmark index will be able to reach its previous record of 13,795 points in the medium term. The market continues to show positive momentum. The slow stochastic is no longer overbought and the MACD is neutral. However, a return above 12,799 is absolutely necessary, so that the DAX 30 would return to its cloud formation (kumo). In addition, an important technical chart mark runs here.

Good fundamentals from the US are expected today. Retail sales are forecast to increase. The consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan will at least remain stable. Yesterday was a shocking moment, but “nothing has happened” yet. It only becomes really critical at prices below 12,500. But today the DAX 30 is tackling the 12,799 again. The current mood, paired with an extremely high liquidity ratio for both institutional and private investors, is positive. The prospects for a continuation of the already indicated year-end rally are quite good. Despite everything, the hedges should be left at 12,500. A good striker is worth nothing without his defenders …

– Next chart resistance: 12,799, 12,975, 13,005
– Next important technical technical supports: 12,600, 12,500, 12,342
– Upper Bollinger Band: 13,226, Middle Bollinger Band: 12,825 and Lower Bollinger Band: 12,858
– 100-day line: 12,727 and 200-day line: 12,158 and: 38-day line: 12,961
– Indicators: MACD: neutral | Slow stochastics: neutral | RSI: neutral | Momentum: positive
– Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: neutral
– It is expected to open at 9:00 a.m. at around 12,760
– (Trailing) stop loss: 12,600, 12,500, 12,342 (depending on individual risk perception)

Primary trend (long-term): not yet back in lfr. Upward trend
Secondary trend (medium term): sideways mode
Tertiary trend (today): test of the 12,799
There is still a chance of a year-end rally

Disclaimer: The text is a column of the Martin Utschneider, Head of Technical Analysis Markets at Donner & Reuschel. 4investors is not responsible for the content of the column and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!

At a glance – chart and news: DAX share index


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