China’s imports and exports have grown significantly as a result of the global relaxation of restrictions. Exports rose 9.9% yoy in September, according to data from the customs authorities. This was largely in line with analyst expectations. After a slump of 2.1% in August, imports rose by 13.2% and thus exceeded the analyst forecast of plus 0.3%.
Unemployment in the UK unexpectedly climbs to its highest level in more than 3 years. The unemployment rate in the period from June to August rose to 4.5% and thus more than expected by economists.
The economic sentiment of the financial experts deteriorated noticeably in October. The ZEW economic expectations fell by more than 20 balance points to 56.1 points. US elections, Brexit and the second corona wave are currently acting like a brake on euphoria. These effects are the reason for our “Swoosh economic picture” for Europe, ie a significant flattening of the recovery after the catch-up effect in the third quarter. We are therefore sticking to our economic and interest rate forecast. The ECB is also under pressure due to the very weak inflationary trend to expand the PEPP again soon.
Inflation in the US is still on the rise. As expected by experts, consumer prices rose by 1.4% in September compared to the same month last year. The rate of inflation was 1.3% in August and 1.0% in July.
The prices of German government bonds reacted with rising prices to the gloomy mood of German financial experts with regard to economic expectations. US bonds also rose as a supposedly “safe haven” after the long weekend due to the holiday.
The renewed increase in uncertainty on the financial markets has interrupted the recent upward trend on the German stock market for the time being. DAX -0.91%, MDAX -1.00%, TecDAX -0.53%. Bayer (-3.47%) was the bottom of the DAX after a negative analyst comment.
A setback in the development of a coronavirus vaccine weighed on Wall Street. In addition, the surprisingly low rise in consumer prices created reluctance on the trading floor. Dow Jones + 0.9%, S&P 500 + 1.6%, Nasdaq-Comp. + 2.6%. Nikkei-225 currently little changed with act. 23,607.88 points.
After AstraZeneca, another major pharmaceutical company has to suspend its crucial corona vaccine study. Johnson & Johnson temporarily stopped its study because of an unexplained disease in a subject.
Roche is expanding its range of tests to diagnose infections with the coronavirus. At the end of the year, an antigen test that can process high volumes should be available in Europe. The test delivers a result in 18 minutes and has a throughput of up to 300 tests per hour.
JP Morgan surprisingly increased its profit in Q3 despite the Corona crisis. The largest American money house earned $ 9.44 billion, 4% more than in the same period last year. Analysts had expected a slump in profits. JP Morgan benefited from unexpectedly good business in equity and bond trading, at the same time the institute had to build up significantly fewer reserves for loans at risk of default.
A different picture emerges at Citigroup. The corona crisis left deep marks in Q3. Profits plummeted 34% to $ 3.2 billion. Citigroup was hit by the low interest rates, higher burdens from loan defaults and a fine of USD 400 million for various misconduct. Consolidated earnings shrank 7% to $ 17.3 billion, although Citigroup, like its competitors, benefited from flourishing stock and bond trading.
The euro suffered from the lack of progress on another corona economic stimulus program in the USA and the high number of new infections with the corona virus.
Oil / gold
Although the environment for oil has not changed, oil prices saw rising prices yesterday. Experts remain skeptical. The gold price lost some of its luster.
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At a glance – chart and news: Citigroup