Insecurity or great insecurity?
Even in the run-up to the US election, there is uncertainty about the outcome of the election. Challenger Joe Biden is ahead in polls, but the US electoral system is somewhat antiquated, so that it is not the majority of Americans but the majority of US electors who make the decision. If a candidate has a majority of electors from a state, the votes of all electors there are attributed to him. In this respect, the majority could reject the incumbent US President Trump, but he could still make the race for the highest office in the state. This already leads to corresponding uncertainty. In the run-up to the election date, Trump announced that he would not accept defeat. If Biden wins the race, the lawsuit should not only cripple the US economy, but also negatively impact stock prices. The uncertainty about the outcome of the election is already causing a lack of dynamism in the markets. Should there actually be a legal dispute afterwards, the currently existing uncertainty would increase significantly again.
No news is not good news …
In addition to Corona and the US presidential election, the British exit is also causing further uncertainty. Things are getting tight here because all EU countries would then have to vote on a negotiated deal. The further October progresses, the less likely an agreement between the EU and the British becomes, and the “no deal” becomes more and more tangible. An exit without rules will have a correspondingly negative impact on the European economy. The traces in the British economy are likely to be even worse. An agreement between the two parties should therefore gradually come as a surprise. However, there is still no sign of it!
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