Markets

Strong DAX week ensures golden autumn

A perfect investor week presented itself on the stock markets with five profitable days in a row. The DAX (ISIN DE0008469008 | WKN 846900) catch up on its September losses and is now stable above the 13,000 mark. Is there enough power left for an autumn rally?

The start of the week brought the DAX very close to its resistance at 12,850 points, which it had already developed the week before. Already on Tuesday the leap was made and thus approached the 13,000 mark. However, it took another day of consolidation to break this mark with momentum.

Thus, a continuation of this movement could already be seen on Thursday and the 13,000 mark jumped with the start of trading. Another test was not only exciting for traders, but also an exciting brand for investors looking for direction. As an example, I traded the following re-test setup in the live trading webinar:

Short trade in the DAX as a re-test of the 13,000

The 13,000 could be established as the closing price and was no longer undercut on Friday. So there was no doubt about the positive weekly development, as the individual trading days underline again:

DAX trading days in week 41/2020 DAX trading days in week 41/2020

The following week has thus developed:

DAX development in the past trading week DAX development in the past trading week

Overall, the September loss could be processed and thus a considerable recovery has been manifested since April. The performance overview for the individual months shows this as follows:

DAX performance over the last few months DAX performance over the last few months

The movement was underpinned by the further imagination for a large stimulus package in the USA. We’re talking about $ 2 trillion here. A political agreement on this has yet to be reached, but the imagination has so far been driving the courses on a broad basis.

What can be derived from the medium-term chart image?

With the reconquest of the 13,000, the trailing edge of September 21 has been reached again and immersion into the September area takes place:

DAX in medium-term development DAX in medium-term development

In the short term, this could represent resistance, although it still offers around 100 points room for the weekly trend to continue until the GAP close before the sharp downward movement.

In the short-term chart period, Friday is to be rated as the consolidation day. It did not break out above Thursday’s key data and had seen a decline in volatility. The amplitudes contract again and provide corresponding signal triggers for the new trading week:

DAX triangle at the start of the week DAX triangle at the start of the week

On the upside, as shown, the remaining price gap from mid-September to 13,116.25 points – the low and closing price on September 18 – is still attractive.

Below the triangle, the price gap on Wednesday in the course of the week, the next support and thus also a potential GAP trade is possible:

DAX price gap on Wednesday DAX price gap on Wednesday

I prepare the charts again separately and up-to-date for the respective trading day. You can send this daily DAX analysis by email receive.

When the next US stimulus package will be adopted can be decided in the next few days. Then it would come before the election of the US president. Which dates are already firmly anchored in the calendar today?

The new trading week starts on Monday with various speeches from the ECB environment, especially by Christine Lagarde.

Tuesday the unemployment rate from England is on the agenda at 8.00 a.m. and the ZEW survey on economic expectations in Germany and the euro zone at 11.00 a.m. The US consumer price index is due at 2:30 p.m.

A large number of speeches from the ECB will also take place on Wednesday.

Thursday holds the weekly initial US jobless claims 2:30 p.m., alongside the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

For Friday, take a closer look at the EU consumer price index at 11:00 a.m. and at 2:30 p.m. US retail sales.

In addition to these selected dates, other key points for the coming trading week with corresponding forecasts are listed in this table:

Business dates of week 42/2020 Business dates of week 42/2020

I wish us a successful trading week. Andreas Bernstein (Bernecker1977)

Feel free to check out the trading chat for more opinions

or in the forum at this point:

https://www.ariva.de/forum/2020-qv-gdaxi-dj-gold-eurusd-jpy-566939?page=712#bottom

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