The first TV duel between incumbent Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden in the US presidential campaign was heated, but did not change much in the polls. There the Democrat Biden leads by a narrow margin of about 3 to 7 percentage points. However, relying solely on surveys can lead to incorrect assessments. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was the favorite, and in the end Donald Trump was able to move into the White House with a big lead. After the announcement of his corona infection, Trump’s chances fell significantly, at least according to the bookmakers. Possible further duels with Biden could be canceled and the election campaign for the president is only possible to a very limited extent.
Unlike four years ago, an incumbent is now fighting for the presidency and he has mostly lost if the economy slipped into a recession in the months leading up to the election. However, since the corona crisis has hit the global economy and the economic situation cannot be blamed on Trump alone, there could be an exception to the rule this time.
Look at the stock market
With this choice it is worthwhile to look more closely at the stock market development than at the economy. According to Ryan Detrick, an analyst at US broker LPL, the incumbent has a good chance of winning if the 3-month performance before the US election (this time on November 3rd) is positive. So far, things are looking good for Trump: Despite the price slump at the end of September, the market-wide S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq have gained more than two percent since August 3. The Dow Jones even rose by 4.3 percent.
The latest turbulence on the stock markets is likely to continue until the US election in a month, which is why warrants on German and American stocks are comparatively expensive. “Currently, the volatility in the Dax, measured against the VDax-New, is almost 30 percent. However, the long-term historical average is less than 20 percent, ”explains Marcus Landau, derivatives sales expert at DZ Bank. Turbos are therefore better than the currently highly valued warrants on average. Against the background of the current development in relation to the US election, Turbo Bulls are worth buying, with which investors are betting on rising prices. Attractive papers with moderate leverage are: VP1GN6 (Vontobel), KB2MPL (Citigroup) and MA2HAE (Morgan Stanley).
Because regardless of the outcome of the election – zero interest rates remain. Trump has cemented the interest rate landscape for years. Americans need the low interest rate environment, and that is what drives the stock markets. Investors should therefore definitely remain loyal to shares and increase their portfolio in times of weakness. Statistics show that the savings rate in Germany increased during the Corona crisis. However, the money has lost nothing on the savings book if it is to bring returns.
US sectors in some cases highly valued
In the USA, some areas have recently been so strong that their high ratings are associated with risks. “In terms of market capitalization in the broad S&P 500, titles from the areas of internet trading, telecommunications services and information technology have a share of around 50 percent and thus distort the overall picture,” explains Norbert Betz, Head of Trading Monitoring at Munich Stock Exchange / Gettex. Therefore, there are also turbos on the Dow Jones, which has run the best recently: CL9BTN (Société Générale), UD6VLA (UBS) and HZ8ZJU (Onemarkets).
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