The savings banks are expecting a rather short crisis: Deka-Bank headquarters in Frankfurt (left).
The savings banks’ forecasts for the rate of inflation differ widely. They only agree on the expectation that inflation will rise in Germany. An “unclear situation” currently prevails in the euro area.
D.Germany’s savings banks expect inflation to rise again in the coming year. However, the forecasts of how far inflation could rise vary widely. Gertrud Traud, chief economist at Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba), who in the past often had a lucky hand with forecasts, says, especially if the temporary reduction in VAT in Germany expires at the turn of the year. She expects an inflation rate of up to 3 percent for Germany in the coming year. That would be significantly more than the “below but close to 2 percent” that the European Central Bank (ECB) is aiming for in the medium term for the euro area. On average, the Sparkasse chief economists expect an inflation rate of 1.6 percent for the coming year, after 0.6 percent this year.
Uwe Dürkop, the chief economist of the Berliner Sparkasse, reports that there is currently an “unclear picture” of inflation developments in Europe – in America, on the other hand, the “impression of a price recovery” is now predominant. At the moment there are still crisis-related difficulties in measuring inflation and prices in this country. Dürkop calls this “imputations”: In some cases, for example, prices for package tours that rarely take place are simply extrapolated from the past. This leads to a “preservation” of prices. In the United States, on the other hand, prices have risen sharply again. A significant part of the rising inflation there is due to rising used car prices, while the prices for housing dampened inflation. Real estate prices there suffered from rising interest rates.